A2s at 25NL: What am I representing with this play?

[Nick C]

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I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.

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Well, okay, but for the sake of argument, if Villain has pocket 2's and is not going to fold them, wouldn't we prefer the action you described on those occasions when we don't improve?

I don't know. At the table, I felt raising big was best -- partly because the limit player in me sees that small flop donkbet and thinks "weak made hand or draw" and I didn't know what Villain's follow-up was going to be on the turn (if I just called the flop). Also, though, I wasn't certain how I should interpret a shorty push from him on the turn if it came and I guess I wanted to avoid having to think about it [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].

Also, I suppose I kind of wanted to experiment with this play when it didn't really commit very much money [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[TheRenaissance]

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I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


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Please explain to me why this action is a bad thing when the turn and river are blanks.

-Andrew

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I feel more like a man when I push.

[dirtysanchez]

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Well, okay, but for the sake of argument, if Villain has pocket 2's and is not going to fold them, wouldn't we prefer the action you described on those occasions when we don't improve?

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just b/c he wont fold the flop doesnt mean he wont fold when an A hits or a heart hits or w/e. and if we arent going to get paid every time we hit with a draw this big we are better off getting it in on the flop, even if he calls w/ 22 every time.

[dirtysanchez]

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[/ QUOTE ]

I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain to me why this action is a bad thing when the turn and river are blanks.

-Andrew

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what about when the turn hits us and villain folds b/c he is scared of the A or the flush or the straight? our equity is great here vs any likely range, and our FE (we have a tiny bit at least) + the times we take his stack will make up for the times we miss.

[Nick C]

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Well, okay, but for the sake of argument, if Villain has pocket 2's and is not going to fold them, wouldn't we prefer the action you described on those occasions when we don't improve?

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just b/c he wont fold the flop doesnt mean he wont fold when an A hits or a heart hits or w/e. and if we arent going to get paid every time we hit with a draw this big we are better off getting it in on the flop, even if he calls w/ 22 every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

The possibility that the cards that improve me will scare Villain into folding later is good to consider.

The math intrigues me, though. Let's say Villain check-folds the turn on an ace but doesn't let a potential wheel or flush trouble him, which actually seems realistic to me. (Er, and let's give him 9c7c so that he won't pick up a draw on an ace.)

All right, now about 1/15 of the time I'm going to catch on the turn in a way that doesn't get me paid. That doesn't seem like much of a problem, really, if I'm still usually getting paid when I catch and I save some money nearly half of the time when I don't improve at all on the turn or river.

But of course, that's just one scenario . . .

(We don't really know Villain is going to check twice after either getting called or raised normally on the flop, and then also maybe he is super-scared of flushes or something. Or maybe he'll even push a draw on the turn if I just call the flop, which is the main possibility I was worried about.)

[kazana]

It's imo pretty weird to assume a short villain will check/fold when a scarecard hits on the turn while getting laid around 5:1 (instead of bluffing!), but will call a flop raise for over half of his stack.

Not sure if I'm mislead here, but I'd be willing to say the chance of him folding after calling off 60-70% of his stack is very small.

[Atlanta Andrew]

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[ QUOTE ]


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I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain to me why this action is a bad thing when the turn and river are blanks.

-Andrew

[/ QUOTE ]

what about when the turn hits us and villain folds b/c he is scared of the A or the flush or the straight? our equity is great here vs any likely range, and our FE (we have a tiny bit at least) + the times we take his stack will make up for the times we miss.

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This is a valid point, but I think the times we are saving $4.75 are greater than the times we lose it. Is villain really going to fold for his last $4.75 in a $15 pot after he calls $4 on the flop?

Our equity is likely around 50/50 on the flop so it's fine if we get all-in there. The push is certainly not bad. I prefer to have more control of that last $5, though, when we see our equity change for better or worse on the turn.

-Andrew

[Nick C]

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It's imo pretty weird to assume a short villain will check/fold when a scarecard hits on the turn while getting laid around 5:1 (instead of bluffing!), but will call a flop raise for over half of his stack.

Not sure if I'm mislead here, but I'd be willing to say the chance of him folding after calling off 60-70% of his stack is very small.

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I think you're right about this. For some reason, though, at the table I only considered calling and raising big. And if I just called, I think Villain might have check-folded a weak made hand on a turn ace.

[BoozeHound]

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I think pushing is best because the following might happen:
Turn blank, check check, river blank, check...
And this will happen almost half the time.


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In that case, you've lost less than when you were pushing, got called, and the turn and river bricked.

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To be honest, I don't think this river is ever checked by villain if you check behind the turn. I can't remember the last time villain saved the last fraction of his stack when you show weakness after a c-bet. This play is the only way we allow ourselves to be bet off the best hand (if villain was on the same flush draw, a straight draw, etc).

Not sure that makes shoving better, but it can't be ignored.

[Nick C]

My results this time were good -- sort of. Villain called all-in with KhTh, which of course would be a huge Fundamental Theorum of Poker mistake if he knew my cards.

But he spiked a T on the turn, and my redraws missed.

Thanks for the responses.