2007 mlb season win totals

[ImBen]

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Season long forecasting is one thing and handicapping is another. Since I only worry about one game at a time these projections (accurate or not) have very little bearing on whether the line is right or not on tonights game.

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Based on your comments in this thread, I'd say there's almost zero chance you're a lifetime winner betting baseball, in any form.

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Ok ImBen I'll bite. Just because this guy doesn't use Pecotas or other season "projections" he is a loser? Please explain that logic. Are you saying that a handicapper is a loser if he doesn't use these "computer projections"? It's probably the other way around. I believe it is probably the losers who depend on "projections" to handicap individual games.

As for projections, it is just a futile waste of time, unless you play fantasy baseball. What a player should or shouldn't do over a 162 "projected" season just doesn't really matter that much in a single game and I find it hard to believe that you guys would use said information to handicap an individual baseball game.

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His general philosophy isn't consistent with someone that can beat the market.

[mrbaseball]

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His general philosophy isn't consistent with someone that can beat the market.


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What is my general philosphy? It's nowhere to be in this thread for sure. I suppose you could find it easily though by searching the numerous posts I have made here over the years about baseball wagering.

I have never understood the mind of an internet troll? What joy is derived from anti-social behavior in public forums?

[crockpot]

ahem...

to all involved in this argument, please read the title of the thread. if your argument is not related to season wins (and mrbaseball, it seems clear yours is not), please save the debate for a more relevant audience. it's not that the discussion is not worthwhile, because it would be valuable when individual games roll around. just not the time or place.

if i'm wrong, and you are actually trying to suggest you have a better model for forecasting team records, by all means.

[mrbaseball]

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if i'm wrong, and you are actually trying to suggest you have a better model for forecasting team records, by all means.

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Nope! Sorry for getting the thread off track.

Out of curiosity though have you compared last seasons Pecota projections with last seasons pre-season lines? I'm pretty sure I saved last seasons Pecota pre-season projections somewhere (I'll look when I get home) but have no clue what last seasons pre-season lines for wins were? It would be interesting to see if blindly following Pecota projections would have won money, lost money or broken even.

[Little_Luck]

I'm liking the Tigers over here.

[crockpot]

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if i'm wrong, and you are actually trying to suggest you have a better model for forecasting team records, by all means.

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Nope! Sorry for getting the thread off track.

Out of curiosity though have you compared last seasons Pecota projections with last seasons pre-season lines? I'm pretty sure I saved last seasons Pecota pre-season projections somewhere (I'll look when I get home) but have no clue what last seasons pre-season lines for wins were? It would be interesting to see if blindly following Pecota projections would have won money, lost money or broken even.

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the pecotas have a standard deviation of about 8.7 games from actual results over the past four years. i believe nate claimed a standard deviation of 9.5 games. the system has been refined over that time, so in theory the number should be a little lower, but we can't really conclude this is the case. considering a perfect system has a standard deviation of 6.3 games, that's still pretty good.

i don't know where i can find past years' over/under lines. if anyone can point me to them, i'll do some research.

[New001]

Didn't get a chance to read it, but http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post5266361 seems to have some stuff from March of last year.

[BudLewis]

If you're a BP subscriber, the work is done for you. Following PECOTA would have been profitable last year:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5609

[Mark L]

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I'm liking the Tigers over here.

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Tigers ooooovvvveerrrrr!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[tippy]

For you guys having the PECOTA arguments for the METS over/under:

http://www.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?y...422089&oid