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#51
02-20-2007, 05:58 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
[ QUOTE ]
And that's not be speculating. That's backed up by cold hard numbers. From PokerSiteScout Stars and FTP have both seen 20% peak player declines [/ QUOTE ] Your statement is very misleading, being used in this way... The fact is, there are more peak players NOW, than there were before the UIGEA 
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#52
02-20-2007, 06:09 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
At 4:00 on a Tuesday afternoon, I was able to fire up 9 games of $2/$4. Back when I started 5 years ago I never thought I would see the day. I remember having to wait 15 minutes for a SNG to get going, now it is usually less than one minute.
Yes times are challenging, but not as bad as everyone is making them out to be at the moment. If the government pushes their absurd agenda at poker then I will change my mind. I still think we are only collateral damage.
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#53
02-20-2007, 06:59 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And that's not be speculating. That's backed up by cold hard numbers. From PokerSiteScout Stars and FTP have both seen 20% peak player declines [/ QUOTE ] Your statement is very misleading, being used in this way... The fact is, there are more peak players NOW, than there were before the UIGEA [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I think this statement is the one that's misleading. There has been significant growth lately in the European market, which says nothing about the USA. Besides, the peak numbers by themselves don't tell the whole story. There is a lot of detail hidden behind those numbers. Let's look at what happened. (1) The UIGEA was signed into law and some of the largest sites pulled out of the US. A huge percentage of American players dropped out of the market. (2) Some fraction of those that dropped out (less than 100%) gradually made their way to Stars, Full Tilt, etc. (3) Neteller pulled out, and ~20% of remaining American players were lost. There may still be an underlying growth trend in US players, but it is currently being overwhelmed by political/legal events.
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#54
02-20-2007, 07:09 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
WPX isn't going anywhere. I would really like to see them market themselves.
I also fully expect to see regulated USA poker within the next two years, and it will probably have some of the best games we have seen to date. Long term, online poker will be just fine. Short term, we have some adapting to do. Thats poker!
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#55
02-20-2007, 07:15 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And that's not be speculating. That's backed up by cold hard numbers. From PokerSiteScout Stars and FTP have both seen 20% peak player declines [/ QUOTE ] Your statement is very misleading, being used in this way... The fact is, there are more peak players NOW, than there were before the UIGEA [/ QUOTE ] Actually, I think this statement is the one that's misleading. There has been significant growth lately in the European market, which says nothing about the USA. Besides, the peak numbers by themselves don't tell the whole story. There is a lot of detail hidden behind those numbers. Let's look at what happened. (1) The UIGEA was signed into law and some of the largest sites pulled out of the US. A huge percentage of American players dropped out of the market. (2) Some fraction of those that dropped out (less than 100%) gradually made their way to Stars, Full Tilt, etc. (3) Neteller pulled out, and ~20% of remaining American players were lost. There may still be an underlying growth trend in US players, but it is currently being overwhelmed by political/legal events. [/ QUOTE ] Regarding #3 Scout, from the data I've looked at (from pokersitescout.com), the numbers were going down a little before Neteller crapped out, due to holiday boom/Stars 5th Year Bash ending. Your thoughts?
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#56
02-20-2007, 07:52 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
[ QUOTE ]
Your thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts on what? I'm not sure what your point is. You're saying the numbers were going to fall 20% anyway, regardless of Neteller?
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#57
02-20-2007, 09:13 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Your thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts on what? I'm not sure what your point is. You're saying the numbers were going to fall 20% anyway, regardless of Neteller? [/ QUOTE ] During the three weeks between 12/25/06 and 1/17/07, Stars had a huge jump in traffic. The three weeks before 12/25 and the three after 1/17 are almost the same in terms of players. Full Tilt has a somewhat similar result. I'm saying, during the X-mas break FTP had a jump in traffic due to the holiday and started to go back down around the time Neteller left. Ditto Stars. To say Neteller leaving hasn't/won't affect player count is wrong, but to say the numbers went down 100% due to Neteller is also wrong. The holdiay ending had some cause as well.
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#58
02-20-2007, 10:24 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
If the point is to compare the pre-UIGEA numbers to the current numbers, then the ups and downs in between aren't especially relevant. What you're saying, in effect, is that some of the apparent recovery post-legislation but pre-Neteller was not actually a recovery, it was just a temporary boost over the holidays. So the Neteller effect was less than it appeared, but the UIGEA effect was greater than it appeared. The net effect is the same.
The point I was making is that the UIGEA had a negative impact on US traffic, Neteller had a negative impact on US traffic, and even with players finding new sites and new e-wallets, the net effect has been negative.
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#59
02-20-2007, 10:37 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
Sorry to be harsh, but I hate when people who know nothing about the situation or legislation make posts like this.
[ QUOTE ] 270 day enforcement rule marks july as the big showdown date. [/ QUOTE ] There is no such thing as a 270 day enforcement rule. Read the legislation and/or the dozens of posts explaining how the legislation works and what the 270 day deadline is before writing crap like this.
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#60
02-20-2007, 10:57 PM
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Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
Off-topic a bit - but does anyone remember Napster?
Sure the government snuffed it out eventually. The proverbial sky fell on the napster world. But it was replaced by T.orrent file sharing. (There's a glaring difference here since one is stealing and can be rationally argued as a criminal act towards another individual, whereas poker is simply illegal because of someone imposing their moral standards on another - much like alcohol.) You may be right that online poker "as we know it" will be snuffed out. But that simply forces creative minds to come up with new work arounds. And sadly, whatever new workaround comes about will probably make it even harder to regulate at a later date. *** All of this ofc ignores the underlying issue that the law stands on shaky ground anyway. It's contradictory in allowing carve-outs to other domestic gambling forms. It's somehow legal to play live but not online. And ofc, because it has no logical basis other than the opinions of what some people feel is morally right - while at the same time infringing on another person's right to spend their discretionary income as they choose - so long ofc as it doesn't infringe on another's rights.
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