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#11
02-20-2007, 08:34 PM
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Re: AA check, and call
By betting the turn and looking pissed/almost folding when he raises how likely is it for us to induce a turnraise/river bet for value?
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#12
02-20-2007, 08:57 PM
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Re: AA check, and call
You really think he has a J here?
If the only J he's playing here is AJs, which seems reasonable, then there are 0-2 ways he can have that hand depending on how the suits of your aces match up with the suits of the jacks. It seems far more likely to me he has a medium pocket pair. I would bet flop and turn and consider check-raising river if you feel you will get paid. In fact if he raised the turn I would be pretty tempted to 3-bet, but I guess that should be more of a metagame decision based on how likely you think his 'new' distribution is to include Jx. If this were online 10-max you would definitely be 3-betting that turn wouldn't you? Given that I had raised UTG my biggest fear would be that he has 55. The hands I would be ahead are various middle pair hands that he's possibly intending to check behind on the river. I also think it's very reasonable for him to have cold-called with TT-QQ versus an UTG raise, if this is a full table. I am not sure whether he actually does that though.
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#13
02-20-2007, 09:09 PM
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Re: AA check, and call
Ni han. I knew I was going to like the way you played this when I saw the title. (Although you could have checked the flop too if you really want to have some fun.)
"my line is optimal to win the max and lose the least" Agreed. Tommy
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#15
02-20-2007, 10:01 PM
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Re: AA check, and call
[ QUOTE ]
You really think he has a J here? If the only J he's playing here is AJs, which seems reasonable, [/ QUOTE ] I'd think a lot of Jx hands fit the description of hands that he'd usually fold but would call with against someone whose running bad. Playing something like QJs for example in this spot might well be +EV if the opponent is playing too passively to punish you when you want to show down a weak pair, get a free card, move him off a hand cheaply, etc. The J is just about the last card I'd want to see paired on the board.
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#16
02-20-2007, 10:12 PM
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Re: AA check, and call
You certainly might be right about Devon's distribution here. However if he thinks it's +EV to cold-call an UTG 10-max (or anywhere near 10-max) raise from a strong player with something like QJs just because that player is playing passively, he's definitely wrong. Hands like QJs, JTs, KQs, etc are in really awful shape against an UTG raise. To play them you would need to know you were going to get very multiway action (or you would need to believe Schneids is tilted and opening super loose). I know this is elementary stuff we're talking about just saying that I would be surprised if a competent player is cold-calling me with many Jx hands here.
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#17
02-20-2007, 11:19 PM
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Re: AA check, and call
"He doesn't have TT-KK here ever"
only played a handful of times with him but have seen him more than once cold call raises with big pairs and then play them weird postflop.
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#18
02-21-2007, 12:24 AM
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Re: AA check, and call
[ QUOTE ]
You certainly might be right about Devon's distribution here. However if he thinks it's +EV to cold-call an UTG 10-max (or anywhere near 10-max) raise from a strong player with something like QJs just because that player is playing passively, he's definitely wrong. Hands like QJs, JTs, KQs, etc are in really awful shape against an UTG raise. To play them you would need to know you were going to get very multiway action (or you would need to believe Schneids is tilted and opening super loose). I know this is elementary stuff we're talking about just saying that I would be surprised if a competent player is cold-calling me with many Jx hands here. [/ QUOTE ] Whether it's actually +EV or not I'm not certain, but I think a player in Devon's shoes could well perceive that it's +EV.
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#19
02-21-2007, 12:33 AM
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Re: AA check, and call
I think the river should be a c/r. I think the mid pairs all have to call you. Also, when you raise and he has QJ he has to be pretty confused as to what you have. I think a J will often not 3 bet here thinking that you have to have A4s or maybe a bluff which you would not call a 3 bet anyway.
I think you got a little too cute on this one, although I think the turn line is fine.
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#20
02-21-2007, 12:39 AM
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Re: AA check, and call
[ QUOTE ]
Also, when you raise and he has QJ he has to be pretty confused as to what you have. I think a J will often not 3 bet here thinking that you have to have A4s or maybe a bluff which you would not call a 3 bet anyway. [/ QUOTE ] i find it hard to beleive a j is not 3towning a river c/r.
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