Value bet river here?

Yoshi63 · #1 02-18-2007, 06:41 PM

My read on SB was that he was blatently loose. I figured he couldn't have even J-rag, because he would have been raising that earlier. Once again, I didn't bet river because I wasn't prepared to do a bet-fold against such a loose-cannon player, but also didn't want to get check-raised out of $20.

Thoughts? (last hand I post today, I swear [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, SB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

Kvacke · #2 02-18-2007, 06:47 PM

If he is loose it looks like a bet may have som value. The four doesnt look that threatening.

Allday Everyday · #3 02-18-2007, 06:58 PM

As played and given your read of the villain, I would bet the river for value.

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but also didn't want to get check-raised out of $20.

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I'm not sure what you mean here. If he check-raises you and you fold, it costs you way more than 20 dollars.

Ricks · #4 02-18-2007, 08:13 PM

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I'm not sure what you mean here. If he check-raises you and you fold, it costs you way more than 20 dollars

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Well said.

Yoshi63 · #5 02-18-2007, 09:05 PM

I meant if he had 2 hearts or 2-pair, or anything that beats my 10's, if he check-raises me and I call, I am out $20 more than if I simply check the river.

Harv72b · #6 02-18-2007, 11:05 PM

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I meant if he had 2 hearts or 2-pair, or anything that beats my 10's, if he check-raises me and I call, I am out $20 more than if I simply check the river.

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You can't think about things like this in terms of one hand. The deciding factor in whether or not to make a value bet on the end like this is how often your opponent will call with a worse hand...if you do end up getting check/raised by some two pair hand or runner runner hit on this hand, sure that kinda sucks. But if that only happens 2 in 10 times that you find yourself in this scenario, and if your opponent will call 7 of the remaining 8 with a worse hand than your AT...well, then you're missing out on a lot more than $20 by checking through the river every time.

So, yes...given your description of the opponent, this is a remarkably easy value bet.

elindauer · #7 02-19-2007, 12:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My read on SB was that he was blatently loose. I figured he couldn't have even J-rag, because he would have been raising that earlier. Once again, I didn't bet river because I wasn't prepared to do a bet-fold against such a loose-cannon player, but also didn't want to get check-raised out of $20.

Thoughts?

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My thought is that your poker logic is really bad. You know the answer, now do it!

-eric

BigBadBabar · #8 02-19-2007, 03:23 AM

easy river bet

Black_Angler · #9 02-19-2007, 08:31 PM

I dont think that many players would check raise the river after going runner runner flush. The junk two pair is possible with an unpredictable player but I just don't think thats going to happen often enough to risk losing a bet here. I value bet if it's me.