Oops, I did it again! A bluff @ 200nl

[goofyballer]

Dude is 42/15 through smallish sample (~40 hands), has check-folded to my CBs a couple times, no other history. I showed down KK a hand or two before this one if he's paying any attention. He paused a little before calling turn, and has $74.10 left on the river.

Full Tilt Poker
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
MP: $40.60
CO: $200
BTN: $284.85
SB: $142.1
BB: $190
Hero (UTG): $276.75

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Q K ($3, 6 players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $6, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 7 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($16, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $10</font>, Hero calls $10

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 7 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($36, 2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets $12</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $52</font>, SB calls $40

<font color="black">River:</font> 7 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [8] ($140, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $74</font>

[GemeniSWE]

My experience is: Never bluff this kind of player.

He bets in you and will probably raise you all in @ river. Sure he could be afraid of the ace therefore the check on river but I feel he has 7x (could be A7, J7)

[terp]

i'm not a huge fan of flop simply because raising these donk leads is very effective and cheaper than double barreling.

god though, after that turn bet, he's just begging for it. kinda risky with the odds he's being laid but these guys never think about these things, just "god i know he hit that ace"

i'd prob throw out 100 on the river so as not to look too suspicious, but sure

[Novles]

whoa, if he's calling the turn, he's not folding much on the river. I also don't like the flop call if I haven't seen him donk before.

[kitaristi0]

I have a feeling he is not folding anything he called the turn raise with on the river.

[Nick Royale]

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I have a feeling he is not folding anything he called the turn raise with on the river.

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[Nick Royale]

Just fold the flop without any history. Given the call I think the turn bluff is fine. Give up on the river, he's getting ~3:1.

[grando]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have a feeling he is not folding anything he called the turn raise with on the river.

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[goofyballer]

What do you think he's calling turn with? Do you think he might peel Jx to try to improve or hope for cheap SD and then fold it on the river? Or do you think he has Ax that he's now not letting go of? Or is he just not gonna fold Jx at any point? The river bet only has to work 1/3 of the time to be profitable.

[nuggetz87]

why do you feel inclined to call his flop bet when the only other history you have is him check/folding the flop multiple times after you raise pre? it probably means he has something.