Good spot for a Semi-Bluff? NL200

[schick]

Hey all,
I'm finding my play somewhat straight forward, and am looking to take more oppurtunities for semi-bluffing, etc. I figure this hand is probably standard, but I am not entirely sure. In the actual hand I folded, but I'm thinking that is just plain awful.

Villian's stats over 350+ hands were 14/4. However he recently changed names (not sure what his old alias was). His new stats over 125 hands are 20/7. He had not reraised me preflop yet, and had called 2 of my raises before (in the last few orbits), called my flop bet, then folded to a turn bet. I'm fairly certain he would view me as TAG.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button Villian ($182.15)
SB ($197)
BB ($203.55)
UTG ($240.75)
UTG+1 ($149.54)
MP1 ($171.70)
MP2 ($324.80)
Hero ($237.15)
CO ($210.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
4 folds</font>, Hero raises to $8</font>, 1 fold</font>, Villian raises to $15</font>, 2 folds</font>, Hero calls $7.

Flop: ($33) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Villian bets $30</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $63

I'm thinking this is an excellent opportunity for a Cr/allin, as villian only has $137 back. I find myself playing pots like this way too weakly. Worst Case scenario, he has AK/AQ and calls leaving me with roughly 25% equity. As I said, this is probably pretty standard. I'm pretty sure I know the answers to this question and how to calculate it, but having other opinions would help me out.

I'm just wondering how often you think an opponent like this would lay down his hand, and what his range might be. I'd assume, QQ-AA, with AK/AQs, but I'm not sure.

Thanks,
Jason

[gol4pro]

If you're confident villian has KK/QQ/JJ, then call the flop and play poker on the turn. At 14/4 villian will not bet the turn with only a PP.

Then once the river bricks, you pot it and villian has to give it up (if he's really 14/4).

OR you hit your flush and get to VB him for like 1/3 of pot.

I don't like a CR all in because you have no information on villian's hand other than he had a monster preflop. Plus, you're not getting good odds on your semi-bluff nor is 25% equity looking very good either.

[MTBlue]

Fold this preflop. It's tough to find a way to make this hand profitable oop against a tag in a reraised pot.

As for the flop play, call the bet on the flop. The checkraise all-in on this board looks bluffy so it may be called by a KK QQ type hand. If the villain checks the turn/ and you miss your flush lead the end for an overbet. It'll be tough for villain to call with any hand that he checks the turn with. If you hit your flush on the turn, I check the turn with the intention of checkraising all-in. If you hit on the river or tag checks the turn, bet an amount that you think he'll call with KK QQ.

There is 12 combinations of KK QQ and 9 combinations of AK and AA so you'll win this pot the majority of the time if you can successfully fold KK and QQ.

I would never fold this preflop

TAG is saying he has QQ-AA and is normally willing to go broke with it and you have one of the best hands to crack it with. Especially with the minraise, will I call this all day every day.

[MTBlue]

If tag plays solidly post flop then your odds will be significantly cut down for your draws and your fold equity will be minimal, especially oop. Basically you are calling the 7 dollars to flop two pair or better which is marginally alright but I've never had the discipline to fold gutshot plus flush draws and pairs with flush draws so I end up flipping alot of coins for my stack. I just did a 100,000 hand review of my PT data and found that my suited connectors were profitable, but they made up a very small portion of my overall profits. If the villain and hero were deepstacked I think this makes a better call.

[bkholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey all,

Villian's stats over 350+ hands were 14/4. However he recently changed names (not sure what his old alias was). His new stats over 125 hands are 20/7.
Thanks,
Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain the above? I don't use PAHUD anymore. If someone changes alias's do their old stats still show? Can you talk a little about this? Thanks.