QQ vs TAP and continued aggression

[Point Blank]

can one of the 'math guys' here PM, I would like to ask a question regarding equity value

[Eleusis]

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I don't see how you can fold the river here. You call on the turn with the king showing up why not call the river? The pot is too large at this point.

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Yeah, as played, I can't see folding the river here... you only have to be right once every six times to make calling profitable.

I'm think I'm more worried about the flush than the king.

[seano34]

Grunch:

NK - I 3-bet the flop, call if he caps and fold unimproved on the turn.

If you are confident his range is AA-JJ, AKs,AQs then you are probably behind to the majority of his range on the flop, and almost definitely behind on the turn. But with the flush draw you are getting 9.75:1 with 8 outs to a flush, 4 outs to a straight and the two Qs which you have to discount to maybe a single out if he has KK, so i like the c/c line on the turn and the c/f on the river

[seano34]

With all these people saying not to fold the river. What hands do you expect to beat on the river??

You have correct odds to call the turn but given OPs read on the villain you are basically only beating AQs

[Eleusis]

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I don't see how you can fold the river here. You call on the turn with the king showing up why not call the river? The pot is too large at this point.

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Yeah, as played, I can't see folding the river here... you only have to be right once every six times to make calling profitable.

I'm think I'm more worried about the flush than the king.

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Operative being, "as played"... I definitely three bet the flop, c/f the turn, but c/c the river.

[seano34]

Sorry I'm not sure what you mean.

I agree with your 3-bet flop, c/f turn line unimproved, but you if you dont draw out on the river and you are behind nearly every hand in his range I think you are good nearly never here.

[Eleusis]

I think at these stakes the river bet is weak more than in 1 in 6.

He could have AQ, AJ, AT, QJ, TJ, 88, etc...

I'm just not convinced with 520 hands to go by.


Edit: I mean, the two checks in a row can induce a bluff from anything, and moreso if we don't raise the flop.

[mmctrab]

*grunch*

I play it the same.

[seano34]

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I think at these stakes the river bet is weak more than in 1 in 6.

He could have AQ, AJ, AT, QJ, TJ, 88, etc...


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I think it is unlikely given his stats (520 hands not an unreasonable amount to get a solid read) he is going to b/rr/cap pre-flop and then raise the flop bet with hands like you posted above - maybe AQ-AJs

[EGO]

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again - I think if you call the flop, then you are making a commitment to showdown

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I disagree. A king or ace drops our equity against his range signifigantly, and we'll get one of those about a third of the time. Plus, we are getting about 16-1 on the flop call (8-1 if you count both bets we put in), but only 5-1 on the bets we put in on both the turn and river combined with the eventual pot size.

The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives us a good redraw, without which I think folding is probably going to save us some bets over the long run, even if we sometimes fold the best hand.

Calling down is easy if no overcards come, which is a majority of the time, but saying that calling a flop bet commits you to showdown seems irresponsible.

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what i'm asking is only for the flop

are you folding the turn, if the turn is not a spade?
... I don't see to much wrong with folding the flop.

because if you call the flop, you should be calling down (should have including ... folding to an Ace or King)

so you are making a commitment of 5 bets to win 20 (so 4:1) - which you have about 17% equity ... but factor in the times you'll fold when a non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Ace or King hits (I would like to know if it's even worth the flop call)
... I do not know how to show this (anyone care to help?)

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Calling down is easy if no overcards come, which is a majority of the time, but saying that calling a flop bet commits you to showdown seems irresponsible.

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You'll hit an overcard by the river about a third of the time. A non-spade Ace or King folds me on the turn.