top set gets ugly on the river

[toomuchforu]

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

first round here so no reads besides a quick call on the button and insta calls after both of the first two streets.
do i really fold???
Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.35
UTG+1: $11
Hero: $99
MP2: $93.46
MP3: $102.10
CO: $104
Button: $115.30
SB: $18
BB: $45

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, 3 folds, Button calls, 3 folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($6.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($14.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $10</font>, Button calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($34.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $20</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $40</font> hero??????

[homeboy604]

then only hand that beats you is 9td or JJ.
do you really think he has these hands?
this would be the worst fold ever.

[toomuchforu]

that's obviously the only two hands he could really have to beat me, but what else does he ever min raise on the river with? Smaller sets are going to raise by the turn and I guess he could have TJ and make that raise but that isn't going to happen as often as the other two combined. It just seems to me that my river bet looks strong and min raising would be a horrible bluff from a seemingly decent enough player.

[jetsetboy]

You are way overthinking this and you are seing monsters everywhere. I think I push here most of the time.

By the way the board is kind of drawy on the flop, bet closer to the pot (at least $5). On the turn you should be closer to the pot too. If he is agro enough you can also go for a stackadonk line or a c/r on the flop, c/rai on the river.

[ClubChamp04]

I don't like a push on this river after he min raises you but it is a must call imo. The only hand that seems logical here is 89dd or some JXd hand, but the players at this level aren't logical so who knows. He could be min raising a missed flush draw, maybe he has J-10.

[jetsetboy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a push on this river after he min raises you but it is a must call imo. The only hand that seems logical here is 89dd or some JXd hand, but the players at this level aren't logical so who knows. He could be min raising a missed flush draw, maybe he has J-10.

[/ QUOTE ]

My god we have third nuts, real nuts doesn't make sense unless it is exactly 9d8d. JJ 3bets preflop quite often. We should be cautious ???? That could easily be a missplayed lower set as well and those players call a push with a set.

[ClubChamp04]

It could be a misplayed lower set, in which case he will call a shove. What other hands is the villian calling a shove with here though? The villians range is huge with the information givin so we can't rule anything out.I guess I gravitate toward the cautious side here with no reads and figure villian is not min rr'ing without a made hand and if he is(which I doubt) he is folding to a shove.

[atomicsoda]

$20 to call for a $94 pot. you only need to win 2 out of 9 times to make money. easy call here.

[jetsetboy]

[ QUOTE ]
It could be a misplayed lower set, in which case he will call a shove. What other hands is the villian calling a shove with here though? The villians range is huge with the information givin so we can't rule anything out.I guess I gravitate toward the cautious side here with no reads and figure villian is not min rr'ing without a made hand and if he is(which I doubt) he is folding to a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

76s/JTs (the last one is unlikely but less than 9d8d) and QQ+ might very well call an an AI on the river (if he is bad enough) as well as any other set. Or line could very well be QQ+ so far, even ATs, so vilain needs a hand to minraise or can use the jack to try to bluff us but a lot are good enough for this minraise (AdJd). Against all the hands that we beat a push has a higher expectation than a call.

In fact the question is simple : do you believe that when he calls a push on the river we are ahead 50%+ of the time. I do believe that we can see JJ and 9d8d sometimes, but that we are ahead 50%+ of the time because JT/76 and any sets might very well call us. I'm calling the minraise here with a hand like AA/JTs/76s the lower set and sometimes KK.