River value/bluff push

intensity · #1 02-16-2007, 02:43 AM

Villain is 18/14 but has been 3-betting me a bit liberally. I decided to play a flop with him in position. How is the river push. Spew?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($200)
Hero ($252.75)
SB ($249.70)
BB ($264.75)
UTG ($352.60)
MP ($196.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, SB raises to $30, 1 fold, MP folds, Hero calls $22.

Flop: ($70) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $50, SB calls $50.

Turn: ($170) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($170) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $172.75 (All-In)

kotkis · #2 02-16-2007, 02:49 AM

You know it's bad when you have no idea wether it's for value or for bluff.

ArturiusX · #3 02-16-2007, 02:58 AM

This hand is a train wreck.

Eagles · #4 02-16-2007, 03:02 AM

The river isn't a bluff because better hands aren't folding. It isn't for value because no worse hands call. Just check and hope to show down the best hand.

intensity · #5 02-16-2007, 03:09 AM

Man, I'm 0 and 3 with you guys. Here's my line of thought and tell me if I'm wrong.

Preflop- I have absolute position over him after the flop. This, and the fact that he's been 3-betting me pretty liberally induced me to make a light call.

Flop- He checks, and I make a bet to steal the pot. I am going to shut off most of the time here if raised but he simply calls.

Turn- He checks again and I debate whether I should fire a second bullet here against a wide range of hands that can fold but I check thinking it could be an easy C/R trap that villain is trying to pull.

River- He checks again. I have the A club here making it less likely that he was on the nutflush draw here so I tried to rep it. I fold out a lot hands here including AQ. However, I was pretty sure he didn't have AQ and more in the line of 10,10-JJ. I discounted AA and KK here because he would have most likely pushed flop. I then discounted JJ because I had a Jack and it was simply unlikely he had the case 2 jacks (and if he did, he would have most likely pushed the river. Therefore, it was down to two hands, either 10,10 which I am value betting here, or AQ which I'm trying to fold out.

minnesotasam · #6 02-16-2007, 03:17 AM

Out of curiosity, if you have his range pretty tightly at TT-JJ why are you not including QQ?

minnesotasam · #7 02-16-2007, 03:19 AM

The more I look the uglier this gets. Is it really worth trying to fold out exactly AQ (which he played kinda weird if he had) rather than just checking it down and hoping to showdown a winner?

There's absolutely no way the answer is yes. Just check it.

intensity · #8 02-16-2007, 03:20 AM

Because I believe he would push QQ on the river also or at least put some kind of value bet. Or he can be really tricky with it I suppose and let me bet out my possible flush.

"Just because you'd play a hand a certain way, doesn't mean villain will also." I think this is my biggest leak in how I think when it comes to trying to put a villain on a hand range.

captainwacky · #9 02-16-2007, 03:43 AM

everything about this hand makes my eyes bleed....

I hate your pf.... 4 betting IMO is better if he's been 3 betting really light....

Flop is the only OK street....

here's the thing- on the river, he's given so little indication that he has a hand, yet there is almost nothing that will pay you off... so he may have checked with AQ, KK, AA, or TT, but you're only going to get value out of 1 of those while probably never folding the other 3.... check behind, you sucked out on AK anyway...

ismokerocks · #10 02-16-2007, 03:53 AM

I don't think he's as likely to be 3 betting you on rags here with a player still to act who called the blind. Anyways, If he was 3 bet bluffing you why wouldn't he fire the flop and represent what he's trying to represent with his 3 bet, an overpair. I don't see many bluffs that check call a flop bet. If he was going to check call the flop with AK, why wouldn't he just bet a like amount and fold to a raise, unless you have been playing crazy. As played, on the turn you should fire again to represent a strong hand that beats AK. On the river, if he has AA, KK, AQ, he is checking as he is afraid of the draw, but most likely call, since they played the hand so weakly. QQ sometimes checks depending on the player, but often bets. He may even call, JJ, QK, or lower pockets on the river, since he may have been inducing a bluff.