Should I be laying down an overpair here? QQ NL200

[schick]

I know posts like these keep coming up, but it helps to discuss them. Is this an easy laydown for an overpair or a must call? I'm beginning to think I shouldn't even be calling the CR if Im just going to fold turn, since they push the turn like 95% of the time. But that is so weak.

Villian is unknown to me, has been around for only a few orbits, and has not gotten out of line.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB ($250.05)
Villian ($173)
UTG+1 ($197.30)
MP1 ($88.85)
MP2 ($205.15)
CO ($87.70)
Hero ($202.50)
SB ($46.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Villian calls $2, 2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $2, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $10</font>, 1 fold</font>, BB calls $8, UTG calls $8, MP2 calls $8, CO folds.

Flop: ($43) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)</font>
BB checks, Villian checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $30</font>, BB folds, Villian raises to $60</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls $30.

Turn: ($163) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)</font>
Villian bets $103 (All-In)</font>, Hero ?.


Folding here seems really, really weak (as Im getting 2.6 : 1 to call), but his play screams of a 5. Would your line be any different if the pot were heads up rather than multi-way?

Thanks,
Jason

[Gary Stevenson]

raise more preflop, utg limper getting pretty nice odds to call your raise preflop assuming one or 2 players behind him are coming along as well. maybe closer to pot bet on flop convinces him not to c/raise an overpair (if he has one) to the board. I dont hate the call on the flop, but i'm probably tossing it on the turn

[LuckyDice]

Push the flop. You are ahead of FAR more hands in his range than you are behind. Think about it. He limps utg and doesn't reraise when you raise. His hand is almost assuredly 55-JJ plus some combos of paint. Would quads or a boat c/r that flop? Only hand to fear is the remote possibility of A5.

As played you have to call the turn.

[wheatrich]

[ QUOTE ]
Would quads or a boat c/r that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, well not so much quads.

only afraid of A5--I guess you haven't learned the what people will call raises with theory of poker. It includes a lot more 5's than that one.

However, as played call the turn bet. I'm mostly afraid of KK/AA here.

[LuckyDice]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would quads or a boat c/r that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, well not so much quads.

only afraid of A5--I guess you haven't learned the what people will call raises with theory of poker. It includes a lot more 5's than that one.

However, as played call the turn bet. I'm mostly afraid of KK/AA here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is even half-way decent, it doen't include anymore fives. Even A5 is a stretch. He limped utg and called a raise for heaven's sake! Also, remember that bad players (ie. people who limp/call utg with 5x trash) LOVE to slowplay.

edit: Just realized that 56s and 45s might limp utg. But based on the way the hand has played out so far, they (especially 56) seem unlikely.

[wheatrich]

If villian is even half-way decent...
I keep making that exact same mistake all the freaking time.

That said I do think QQ is by far most likely the best hand here and I would call because of that. I fully expect that villian most likely has a 6 or some lower pair. But I have seen KK/AA people play this hand like this many times before.

Also, if you're just going to fold to that allin bet--don't call the minraise.

[LegallyBlind]

Yeah this seems like a pretty standard call. If villian has trip 5's or a boat, he is playing it pretty bad, as I would think he could find a much better way to get all the money in. The mini-raise on the flop doesn't really scream strength it screams of a middle-pair trying to find out where he stands, when you just flat called, he assumes 77-jj is the best hand and pushes on the turn. OF course he COULD have it, but i think there is much better chance he has 77-jj, mabye even 78 or 67.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
raise more preflop, utg limper getting pretty nice odds to call your raise preflop assuming one or 2 players behind him are coming along as well. maybe closer to pot bet on flop convinces him not to c/raise an overpair (if he has one) to the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop is fine. Flop bet is fine. Fold to the checkraise if the guy is a weakie that doesn't get out of line.

[DrPublo]

Call and bust 88.

The Doc