Potentially interesting (or maybe silly) theoretical question - Page 2

Befolder · #11 02-14-2007, 02:59 PM

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Knowing that he would fold the flop too much makes it playable, but we don't know that, thus can't really factor it in.

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How often does A2o hit the flop in a way that some random live player will call after being 3-bet preflop?

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You can't assume this villain is smart or thinks like we do. Don't project a smart players brain into his. It's possibly he could be a maniac.

Befolder · #12 02-14-2007, 03:00 PM

I'm just realizing it's live, but it almost seems like some people want to save more face live and don't want to be bluffed so might call down or at least take another card off.

milesdyson · #13 02-14-2007, 03:00 PM

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Knowing that he would fold the flop too much makes it playable, but we don't know that, thus can't really factor it in.

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How often does A2o hit the flop in a way that some random live player will call after being 3-bet preflop?

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You can't assume this villain is smart or thinks like we do. Don't project a smart players brain into his. It's possibly he could be a maniac.

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Ugh... so what? He could also be a ton of different things. In general, live players play very predictably after the flop.

milesdyson · #14 02-14-2007, 03:03 PM

Also just want to add that the decision is between coldcalling and 3-betting. Folding is absolutely terrible, even if you will forget his cards postflop. By coldcalling you'll invest 2 bets into a pot that will be 5.5 bets postflop, and you have very good equity and position and 0% risk of domination. You will pair up your Ks or Qs easily enough to turn a profit by coldcalling, not to mention the times you flop JTx or a 4-flush and bluff him off his hand.

I can't believe my eyes - fold 45% equity heads up for 3.5:2 with position?!?!

NIX · #15 02-14-2007, 03:05 PM

I definitely like a 3bet since we know he'll be in a tough spot on a lot of flops and my just fold if he misses and at the very least, it gives us initiative throughout the hand.

At the very least, don't we at least have to call his raise? I don't think we can get a total loose/passive read on the guy if it's a low limit live game and he's opening with A2 in the CO, so he'll probably put a few bets in if we hit top pair or can connect on a draw. We know preflop that we're not dominated, so we're getting a good price on the call as well.

milesdyson · #16 02-14-2007, 03:06 PM

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At the very least, don't we at least have to call his raise?

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Yes, absolutely. Folding is incredibly bad given what we know.

Befolder · #17 02-14-2007, 03:07 PM

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Also just want to add that the decision is between coldcalling and 3-betting. Folding is absolutely terrible, even if you will forget his cards postflop. By coldcalling you'll invest 2 bets into a pot that will be 5.5 bets postflop, and you have very good equity and position and 0% risk of domination. You will pair up your Ks or Qs easily enough to turn a profit by coldcalling, not to mention the times you flop JTx or a 4-flush and bluff him off his hand.

I can't believe my eyes - fold 45% equity heads up for 3.5:2 with position?!?!

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Good point. I change my vote.

ottsville · #18 02-14-2007, 03:12 PM

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Let's say your opponent is otherwise unknown to you.

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Assume another unlikely thing happens, too. After preflop, you have a severe brainfart and forget your opponents cards.

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These two factors make it(the play) no different than not having seen your opponent's hole cards. However, knowing what the equity is preflop, the only reason to do anything is if you think you can make up the equity deficit post flop. This boils down to how much credit you give an unknown.

Edit: after reading Miles' posts, I like the three bet

BigBadBabar · #19 02-14-2007, 03:14 PM

I would 3bet. We can't fold obviously and raising is better than calling, to me, since we have position and our hand is easier to play, imo. Also we can outplay him postflop.

DrModern · #20 02-14-2007, 07:18 PM

O.K. Miles made the point perfectly for me. Which is just this: Stoving does not tell you everything you need to know to make a preflop decision. You make your preflop decisions based on their profitability, not just on your hot-cold equity.

This strange theoretical discussion was my way of combatting the weak-tight nonsense floating around in that AQo thread. That hand is an easy, easy raise and I think this one is a pretty straightforward trey.

Holla.