Simple preflop - set value here w/ 5/10 rule?

[melioris]

I call about 66% of the time here because I put his range here AT+, 88+. He is going to lead out on EVERY flop for something around $10. Depending on the texture of the flop, I end up mini-raise him on the flop 50% (folding the rest) and expect to take it down >75%. The other times I will fold to his push unless I hit my set.

Also, I 4-bet bluff this preflop 25% just to mess with him. I expect to take it down preflop 85% or more with a 4-bet bluff. TAG 18/12 types often put me on blind steals (I wonder why?) with button raises and open their 3-betting range from the blinds against me. A 4-bet preflop makes them believers.

There are a lot of ways to get money out of this hand other than hitting your set.

[Sir Winalot]

No matter what rule you use this is an easy fold. TAG's are raising AK preflop and that means he's not stacking off 100% postflop no matter what we do.

Barry, dan bitel has done the maths. Search for 3/8 rule (new 5/10).

[CIncyHR]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[AceLuby]

Multiway, call
HU, fold, not enough implied odds

[eigenvalue]

If he is a strong TAG, it's a fold. The reason is that you will not be able to stack a strong player every time you hit your set! You can continue only if you know that Villain is that type of player that goes all-in with any overpair or with any TPTK if you raise all-in on later streets. But a really strong player will not do that!

[eigenvalue]

Wow, we are on the same line here - unbelievable!

[Triggerle]

I have made the calculation before and arrived at something like guaranteed10:1 because of set-over set and straight/flush situations. If villian is anything but a chip-spewing maniac you will never have 10:1 guaranteed with 100BB stacks.

I've read convincing calculations here before that you need 17:1 in effective stack size to make this profitable. This would mean effective stacks of 150bb+ in your situation.

[Roadstar]

Can anyone provide a link to Dan Bitel's 3/8 rule? I can't find it under search.

At any rate, originally, I agreed with most responses - that the implied odds are probably not enough to call this.

But the more I think about it, the less I'm convinced. I know some of you mentioned that unless villain is a crazy maniac postflop with an overpair, I won't get paid off as much as I would like.

Well I kind of disagree with that, its precisely because the pot will be so big relative to our stack sizes that villain **will have to commit** postflop with an overpair regardless of action.

I'm trying not to be results oriented here but I originally thought villain played this hand poorly, but if his range was AA-QQ then its so difficult to play the hand (***By the way, the converter screwed up I was in SB not button**)


Results - I call the raise,

flop
853

Hero bets $10, villain pushes, I insta-call, villain shows TT MHIG.




Lets say villain AA-QQ represents the majority of his range instead. The pot has bloated to $13 preflop ($43 behind each).

If I hit a set and bet $10-13, villain wouldn't be so wrong in pushing as it represents a Pot Sized Raise. Even if villain just called, the pot would become $39 by the turn, committing villain's stack anyway.

I mean if we had AA-QQ in this situation and we get a ragged flop, do we really FOLD to a pot sized bet? if we raise, we're committed, if we call, well we're still basically committed. So thats a positive for implied odds no?

Conversely, if stacks were realy deep, vilain could make a pot sized flop raise and still fold to a 3 bet with AA-QQ.

(Note: I do understand the concept of implied odds to a certain extend and realize that in general, smaller commitments preflop relative to stack sizes gives us a lot more implied odds. But I'm torn in situations like these)

Thanks,

[Triggerle]

Check the last post here

[ettorek]

[ QUOTE ]
I think villain is TAG, 18/12 type.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, because you know that he's tight this means that such a player usually doesn't defend his blinds: just put money to build the pot. I don't think he reraise in such a way with AK, probably he has a top pair (QQ+) and you are behind: IMO better to fold here.
BTW, I don't think his reraise is random: he 10% of your stack because he know that here you'd call here only with your best hands (AKs,QQ+).