Move ? Math ?

[7lb12oz]

Long time lurker first post. Currently struggling through "mathamatics of poker" in a bid to develope some math to my game. My schooling finished 20 years ago, so I am basically starting from scratch. Anyhow enough of that, the hand!

Blinds 400-800 1st hand this level 30 min clock steep stucture from here on

800-1600
1500-3000
3000-6000

I'm in SB with 12400 (incl SB) villain is BB with 11800(incl BB)
avg stack is 11.6k

26 players left 9th pays $250 and 1st pays $4.5k (significant ?)

I've been card dead pretty much to this point hence really tight. Villain is more a ballsy than thinking type player and probably knows that while tight I am capable of making a move.

So, Folded to me on SB with 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
and I complete for 400
Villain makes it 2400

my thoughts were
stacks are very shallow here ?

Villain would certainly check behind with a really big hand

this is a standard punish limp play and very likely light.

I push for 12400 I cover ?

Villain calls with
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ?

So, my attempt at the math ?

Based on 50% fold to Reraise assumption

he folds

3200 * .5 = 1600 +

he calls

.5(-11800 * .59)(1800 * .41) = 538

also based on 60% call ratio

he folds

3200 * .4 = 1280 +

he calls

.6(-11800 * .59)(11800 * .41) = 5.6

Are my calculations correct ?

If so , this is + ev if called <61% ?

I felt I needed to start accumulating at this point hence the move, is this premature given stack v blinds

[Solitare]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain would certainly check behind with a really big hand

[/ QUOTE ]
This ia a very bad assumption.

[kinheim]

the assumption that he is not doing this with a good hand is wrong i think..
you need a read to make a play like this, if he is doing plays like this constantly a push is +ev but here i whould try to trap him next round instead of pushing right now.