Playing to Win?

ianlippert · #1 02-14-2006, 08:50 PM

I dont play many SNGs I mostly play cash games, but I was having this conversation with my friend who plays only 10 player SNGs about calling on the bubble when it is a coin flip. I was arguing that you would rather double up so that you have a better chance to place first and win the most money and he argued that you want to wait for the bubble. He sent me a link to a thread and I'm not so sure anymore. So here is the theoretical question:

It is the final 4 of a SNG and all players have the exact same chip count. You are in the big blind with 22 and UTG reveals AKs, and then goes all-in. What size do the blinds have to be to make this call? Do you ever make this call?

b33nz · #2 02-14-2006, 08:53 PM

Depends if you are desperate, and also depends upon the ratio of how much the initial pot (blinds + antes) is to your stack. For example, if it is 1/4th of your stack, therefore giving you the correct odds to call, then you must call.

Gobgogbog · #3 02-14-2006, 08:53 PM

This is just a math problem. I believe the FAQ links to an ICM calculator, and it would be instructive for you to work it out on your own

Jack Fate · #4 02-14-2006, 08:58 PM

Short answer: No. This is -$EV. It can be computed using ICM and a poker calculator.

Please read the FAQ to learn more about this.

GreekHouse · #5 02-14-2006, 09:03 PM

As I (and others) have stated on here before, you should not adopt the strategy of always playing to win, nor should you always adopt the strategy of always trying to sneak into the money.

You should always make the choice which has the greatest EV. Depending on stack sizes and other factors, the most profitable way to play may vary between the two. Doing one or the other exclusively is a huge leak.

If you learn about ICM, you'll learn that not only are there times when you should avoid a coinflip, there are times when you should fold when you are a likely favorite.

nhsir · #6 02-14-2006, 09:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So here is the theoretical question:

It is the final 4 of a SNG and all players have the exact same chip count. You are in the big blind with 22 and UTG reveals AKs, and then goes all-in. What size do the blinds have to be to make this call? Do you ever make this call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll play along. Assuming the blinds aren't huge, which they normally aren't under your scenario, you should fold. If you lose you're out and win nothing. If you win, you don't double your tournament equity. If you were the one going all-in first it would be different, because you'd be giving yourself two ways to win, so the move would have more value.