.25-.50 NL pot odds

[awakuni]

i think this is a newbie/donkey type question but at what point are pot odds so good that you can't lay down a hand preflop? last night the guy to my left was raising a lot and then everybody called pretty much giving me 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 on my money. i was calling with less than premium holdings like suited K-8 and 4-7. are calling with hands like these, even with good pot odds, in a low stakes game going to cost me money in the long run? what percentage of the time do i need to win with random hands, and good pot odds, to stay profitable?

[SplawnDarts]

You can and should lay all sorts of things down under those circumstances.

Remember that NL is a game of implied odds, NOT pot odds. A big preflop pot is not attractive to speculative hands because postflop bets just become bigger, and stacks are exhausted earlier in the hand which is bad for marginal hands that might improve to the (near) nuts eg. a small 2-pair on the turn. Playing hands like 74s puts you in that situation often.

Generally, in games where a lot of money goes in preflop and there are raises not supported by hand value, you tighten up since you don't want to have to abandon your hand once you jump in.

[awakuni]

thanks for the reply. my response though is, what if i'm getting 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 on the flop, and turn bets as well? and shouldn't these speculative hands be played in a multi-way pot to begin with, which is also often the reason why i'm calling in the first place. but thanks for reminding me about implied odds , it's something that i need to incorporate more into my game play and theory.

[SplawnDarts]

Are you getting 4-1 on the turn because people are underbetting the pot, or because there are 2 callers of a full sized bet infront of you? The two situations are very different.

If there are a lot of underbets, you could bring back some speculative hands that draw to straights and flushes because the small bets will leave you with money to use if you hit.

If it's because of excessive callers, you're going to want to stick with strong starting hands because you're likely going to raise all-in on the flop.

Oh, and FYI, 3:1 isn't particularly good pot odds.

[bluesboy75]

I would have to say that getting 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 pot odds is very good if you are playing good drawing hands. I dont think I would recommend playing completely ranodm hands such as K 8 and 4 7 but if your hand is one such as A {x} suited or suited connectors then you will probably be getting good enough odds to try and catch your straight or flush after the flop. However these hands must be played very cautiously. Just because you catch a flush with 7 8 suited doesnt necessarily mean you have the best hand. You will obviously win some big pots when you do connect which should make up for the occasional preflop raises that you call but like I said, what are you actually hoping to flop with K 8. Two pair is probably the best flop that you can see because two kings or eights on the board wouldnt necessarily give you the best hand and you obviously cant flop anything but an inside straight draw which you wouldnt be getting the odds to call a reasonable flop bet with.

[awakuni]

thanks for everybody's input. as far as the flop and turn bets go, it's generally because of both underbetting along with loose callers (don't forget it's a .25-.50 nl home game). so with 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 on the flop and turn i'll call with a lot of hands. it seems like i'm getting priced in to catch a big hand. is this wrong strategy? and why isn't 3-to-1 a good price? i just need a hand that will win 33% of the time to make it profitable. could this type of thinking be a leak in my game?

[bluesboy75]

3 to 1 is a good price preflop. You never know what the flop is going to be. But you only need to win 25% of the time with 3 to 1 for it to break even.

[SplawnDarts]

You need to be thinking implied odds & one street ahead instead of thinking equity. It's rare in holdem to be behind in holdem and yet have a 33% draw just from the next street. You may have 33% across multiple streets, but then you need to calculate the cost across multiple streets too.

[PantsOnFire]

3 or 4 to 1 is not good enough pot odds with trash hands. I look to have 10 to 1 to play any two cards.

The reason is that you really need to hit the flop hard with a bad hand. Like for K8s, you need a flush draw, trip 8s or K8 to hit. That just doesn't happen every 3 or 4 times. If you play K8 and the board is something like AK6 rainbow, you're done. Even if it is K62 rainbow, you could be headed for big trouble.

You see experts playing these sorts of hands with some odds because a) they can release top pair bad kicker and b) they can read weakness in opponents and steal any pot if given the chance. Most of us will donk off lots of money with a weak kicker or bottom two pair.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this is a newbie/donkey type question but at what point are pot odds so good that you can't lay down a hand preflop? last night the guy to my left was raising a lot and then everybody called pretty much giving me 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 on my money. i was calling with less than premium holdings like suited K-8 and 4-7. are calling with hands like these, even with good pot odds, in a low stakes game going to cost me money in the long run? what percentage of the time do i need to win with random hands, and good pot odds, to stay profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe an example will help - here's a standard hand analysis that might help you walk through the steps a little better:

Position. This usually dominates my thinking before the cards even come out. Say we have the button. Right off, you know you can play a bunch of hands.

The players to act after me. Haven't looked at my cards yet. In this case, there's only two players to act after me (the blinds), but I need to understand what they're like. Are they likely to raise after a few limpers or what? This will affect your decision...

Action before me. Say TAG early MP raises 4xBB, Calling station CO calls. No real sign of strength.

My hand. 8h 6s. A speculative, relatively weak hand. You have to flop big, which is fairly unusual. You have to win enough money with this hand to make up for all the times you lose money with it to break even.

Stack sizes. This is very important for these types of situations. Not just yours, but everyone else's in the hand. How much can you win/lose here? If you're going to take long shots with weak speculative hands you need the potential to win big... in this case, real big.

Are there weaker players likely to pay me off if I hit? With 86o, that's tough to do against strong players, because even when you do get it, a) they may not have anything, and b) they may be able to make a good laydown.

Do I have a reasonable chance of taking down the pot if we all miss? Are they fighters? Are they calling stations? At some tables you can pick up an orphan pot all the time, at some it's very difficult. You need to consider this pre-flop.

Odds. Because this is an implied odds question - you're really taking everything above into consideration. Pot odds are for situations where you have four to a flush on the river, and you have to decide if you can call x bet - that's just straight math. Here, in these situations, you don't know how much the final pot will be. In a sense, implied odds are pot odds where you have to estimate the final pot.

Information. I don't have that much. Opening player is very likely to have a good hand, who knows about the calling station. I know nothing about SB or BB.

Total picture. Ok, I don't think the blinds are likely to make a reraise without a real hand, makes calling at least little safer. I think M/EP is a decent player, but the calling staion might pay me off big. Small blind might call, he's not too bad, and the BB is fairly tight.

So, I will usually be getting 4-to-1 to call, factoring in a reasonable chance I need to release to a blind raise say 3-to-1. But that doesn't really tell me anything.

OK, I'm 100b+, as are a couple of the other players. That's fairly deep, but we're contemplating calling at raise here, not limping. I also have position on everybody, and in this case I think there's a player or two that might give me action if I hit and they get something. I also have a fair shot at taking down a small pot betting the flop.

All told though, at most tables I'd usually let this go here (or, raise to steal if anything). This is one of those hands that's difficult to hit with and also give your opponents something to lose all of their chips with. Even if the board comes 457, 888, or 886, what do you expect to win? If it comes T87 against four players - then what? Can your 8 be good there?

The raise preflop is another reason - the ratio of the stacks to the pot is a lot smaller with the 4x raise than it would have been in a limping situation.

I also have no idea what anyone could have, other than the opener who probably has something. You can probably disregard AA, KK, or AK from everyone else. QQ might raise, but not necessarily depending on the player - also, things are crazy at your limit.

For a novice player, weak speculative hards are nothing but trouble. I would say fold here without question. If you can limp in for 1/50th of your stack or less, and see if you can get a draw to an open-ended straight draw or two pair, I guess that's fine, but even then only if you have the button and can limp. Otherwise, you won't make enough on average, and frankly you'll probably get stacked even when you do make a great -but second best- hand too often to make it worthwhile.

Also, quick note, some specualtive hands play better multi-way, and are easier to know where you're at with, like with small pairs or suited aces (either of which I'd call with here just fine). If you have Ah7h, you might get in trouble when an ace flops a lot, but you'd be playing more for flush value in a multiway pot.