All in with random hand, get a caller, what are my odds?

[jared701]

I'm trying to come up with the odds of making money using a new odd strategy. I haven't tried this strategy yet so don't know how well it works. My question is, if I simply go all in with any hand, does not matter to me what hand it is, preflop, what are my odds of winning if I get a caller or 2? I'm assuming any kind of table, both loose and tight.

I know you don't really have enough information to make an accurate prediction... but just any random table and any random hand and someone calls what would you guess my odds would be? My brother thought it would be around 70them/30me. Would it be way under that, or possibly higher?

[Small Fry]

You don't supply enough info to answer that question. Could be anywhere from about 80% favorite (your "random" hand could turn out to be AA right and you get called by KK)to 20% dog. Find a program called Poker Stove, download it and you can plug in any hands you want for an answer.

ps. You only lose money with this strategy

[jared701]

This isn't my strategy, it's just one variable of the strategy I'm trying to set up. I know I'm not giving enough information about my hand or the hand which would call me going all in (could be loose or tight player), but I do not have that information. I'm just wondering about the average player level on a 50cent/$1 table calling vs me at any point pushing in with a totally random hand. I know my odds are under 50%, I just don't know if it would be lower than 10 or possibly up to 25-30% I may just have to test it out for a few days to find out if no one has any idea.

[steelcmg]

This chart tells you how often hands will win vs. X amount of players. Its probably the best you will get. Poker Chart

[surfdoc]

It will be impossible to answer your question without any data on your opponents. In general though your equity will be pretty low once called especially if there are deep stacks. This will become less correct the more frequently you start pushing since inevitably some of the players will start figuring it out and calling you a bit lighter.

[edfurlong]

[ QUOTE ]
player level on a 50cent/$1 table calling vs me at any point pushing in with a totally random hand. I know my odds are under 50%, I just don't know if it would be lower than 10 or possibly up to 25-30% I may just have to test it out for a few days to find out if no one has any idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, its not under 10%. If you can't work that out on your own you should go to the stats or beginners forum.

This forum sucks.

[jared701]

Well, I found out one fundamental flaw in my idea so thought now I'd post what I had been trying to do. I thought that if I bought in for the minimum amount on a money table and went all in the first hand I would only get a caller 1/7 times. I believed that the minimum buy in was 10x the big blind, so assuming 1/7 callers and 20% success rate on a call I would make 30x big blinds every 70 hands or 50x big blinds at 30% success rate. However, I learned that the minimum buy in is 20x the big blind and I don't think it reasonable to assume 1/14 callers or less than that amount so my idea therefore won't work. Oh, and I was planning on leaving each table after the first round, so it's not like I expected to go all in 70 times and only get 7 callers. Too bad the minimum buy in is 20x the big blind so I never got a chance to test this theory [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[Small Fry]

Well now it's a much more interesting problem / theory. I don't play micro limit or NL but I'll give you my .02 anyways. If you just sit down and go all in on the first hand I doubt you get called except by really good hands, even if you are short stacked, so I would put you at about 25% to win. Most will want more info on you / your style before calling your all in. The larger the pool of players the greater your ability to carry this out as it will take a little while before what you're doing is apparent.

But I still see no real defense against it. A player sits down and goes all in on the first hand for 10xbb. (Or even 20xbb which I think makes a call even less likely) Do you call with a marginal hand for what could be a coin flip? What if you know he'll do this with any hand? Why would you risk it? Especially if you know this guy is only going to do it one time and then leave. Maybe he shows up in an hour and does it again.

I would be interested to know how long this style could be carried out. Are there enough tables going / players moving around in a night that you can pull this move 50+ times, every night. The upside is that if players do become aware and decide to call you with marginal hands your win % could go from 25% to around 40%.

This new question / style might get some good responses in the theory forum???? Unless you don't want to give away your "secret" strategy.

[jared701]

Not sure I'll even try it now finding out the min. buyin is 20 big blinds. I'm curious if I could slightly alter the strategy though to fit my needs and still be profitable. I'm wondering now what if I bought in with the min. and risked half my stack on the first hand, if someone calls and the flop comes out favorably I go all in, if not I fold if they raise. Or do you think half in would make more people call me? I'm really curious if there is ANY modification of this strat that could actually be profitable for a few weeks/months. Also, I realize this may have to be in like 20 minute segments at different times of day if there is a lack of new tables.

[EvilSteve]

All in with a random hand is not going to be profitable period, but all in with a certain range of hands and fold the rest might be worth looking into. Check out the book Kill Phil (there's also the Sklansky System but I believe Kill Phil is more detailed), an all-in or fold system for tournaments. I don't see why you couldn't apply Kill Phil, or something similar, to buying in shortstacked in a cash game. Basically you just need a chart of hand requirements for each situation, where the situation variables are: 1. Your stack size (assuming everyone else has you covered). 2. Your position. 3. Whether you are first in, facing a limper, 2 limpers, a raise, a raise and a reraise, etc. Well all the combinations of that 3rd variable is going to be hard to deal with, but coming up with a series of charts exclusively for when you're first in and you need to decide between all-in or fold would be doable. The question is, can you come up with a system that is profitable? My guess is at 20bb buyin the answer would be no, at least above the microlimits (you could profit if most of your opponents are way off base with their calling requirements). Get your stack down to 15bb and it starts to look more attractive. The upside is, if you do come up with a profitable system you can multitable like crazy, because applying the system will be completely mindless. Obviously once you double up, its time to leave the table and find another.

Oh BTW I don't recommmend ever pushing in just half your stack, you're pot committed then. If you aren't playing all-in or fold, you pretty much have to start playing real poker with postflop play and everything.

Edit: Even 15bb buyin seems too high for this to be profitable when I think about it, I'd say 10bb maximum. So it might be a fun experiment to try but I doubt you'd make money.