.5/1 - folding a top pair HU

[pena]

No reads on this fellow.

I hate to get raised on the turn when heads-up. Usually I call down I hate it afterwards.
Recently, I've tried to be more disciplined and fold most of the time HU when get raised on turn.
Was the pot-odds tiny enough (7.5:2) to justify this fold? I had a top pair, but usually it's not enough.


Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.5SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3.75BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to MP3.

Results:
Final pot: 5.75BB

[Str8Fish]

this is a pretty dry board, meaning there's not that many draws out there villain could have that he could be raising on the turn. Meh, you're looking to spend 2BB by the river on a calldown to win 7.75BB... that's 26%. Your TP has to be good more than 74% of the time for that to be correct. I don't mind the fold at all... not on this board.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

......

no

i call and reevaluate on the river. 3betting the turn wouldnt be terrible.

[Grease]

[ QUOTE ]
......

no

i call and reevaluate on the river. 3betting the turn wouldnt be terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think 3-betting the turn would be terrible, because if he caps it, you're almost always drawing dead.

This situation is completely read dependent, IMO. I call down TAGs, LAGs, and people who like to pull the turn trigger with TP, but against LP's and TP's, I muck it.

Against an unknown, I would call, reevaluate on the river, and call if the board doesn't take a dump on your chest.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
i call and reevaluate on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sorts of things would you look for as part of your re-evaluation?

[hunter.chief]

without any reads I think we have to lay it down here.
we have no idea where we stand. are we drawing dead to a set or is villain overplaying his pair of 7s or whatever.
I don't think that going to the river and reevaluating will do any good.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i call and reevaluate on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sorts of things would you look for as part of your re-evaluation?

[/ QUOTE ]

there are quite a few things to consider card dependent.

i may b/c a K.

definitely c/c an 8 or J....

other cards are closer. especially a Q or a 3. i have no idea what is +ev when one of these hits, at first glance i think i b/c again.

i dont think i fold, b/3bet or c/r ever.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
......

no

i call and reevaluate on the river. 3betting the turn wouldnt be terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think 3-betting the turn would be terrible, because if he caps it, you're almost always drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. so lets assume for arguments sake:

1. if we are ahead he wont catch up on the river.
2. if we are behind we wont catch up on the river.
3. if we are ahead he will call the 3bet and call the river.
4. if we are behind he will cap and then we c/c the river.

notice first that these factors are overall negative... that is to say that when we are behind he will often NOT cap. the other factors are likely neutral, such as outs to catch up and implied odds etc. so using this model actually naturally favours the fold.

this means that in order for a 3bet to be correct here we need to be ahead exactly 66% of the time as we are losing 2BB on this street when behind and gaining 1BB when ahead (river is neutral).

so it depends what portion of his range we can give to QT, QJ, Q9 and T9... as well as random hands like A8/8x, A7/7x or A3/3x.

i dont think we have 66% which is why i say just call down.... we arent too far off tho so it wouldnt be a terrible 3bet.

[Big Folder]

I call, you potentially have 8 outs. 5 outs from K or Q, 3 outs from the 3s.

Unless I had a read that "this guy will only raise the turn with trips or better" would I fold outright.

[Big Folder]

the call and reevaluate has more to do with hoping to hit your potential outs. I'm not ready to put this guy on a set. 87 seems likely so I want to see if i hit one of my 8 outs.

If not, then c/f the river makes sense.