River Bet on lucky unlikely river

[locutus2002]

$1000 Commerce
25/25 I have T1600 chips villain covers. It's early so not much of a read, villain was down to T600, but trippled up in an all in hand when he flopped a set of jacks 3-ways.

I limp 85s utg, 3 other limpers and we take the flop 6 ways.

Flop 962r

sb checks, bb leads 125, I call, every one folds.

Turn 9 putting two spades on the board.

Villain checks, I bet 275. Villain calls.

River 7c (not a spade).

Villain checks, I have T1200 left, villain covers, how much will you bet?

[Shes92]

Pot is t950. Id be betting about 400. Its callable and I think villain may see it as weak (you might be trying to leave yourself with a decent stack if you are just making a play and will fold to reraise). Its leaves him with a little room to reraise allin whether he has strong hand or tries to play back at you with nothing. If he just calls with a mediocre holding the t400 is a signifant amount at this blind level and these stacks. I am assuming you are not worried about a FH here. If he does have a monster, youre going broke.

[shaundeeb]

umm I really hate the PF open limp and the flat call on the flop with a bunch of players left to act and you can get raised a lot and you aren't even drawing to the nuts. You also called almost a pot sized bet which was 1/10th of your remaining stack so for that to be +EV you need to stack him everytime you hit or get lots of others calling andnot raising. Hands like these really bleed your chips quickly even though you have 60bbs now in 30min prob you get to 30bbs etc you need to not play these weak hands weak draws in a weak position.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
umm I really hate the PF open limp and the flat call on the flop with a bunch of players left to act and you can get raised a lot and you aren't even drawing to the nuts. You also called almost a pot sized bet which was 1/10th of your remaining stack so for that to be +EV you need to stack him everytime you hit or get lots of others calling andnot raising. Hands like these really bleed your chips quickly even though you have 60bbs now in 30min prob you get to 30bbs etc you need to not play these weak hands weak draws in a weak position.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand is so bad. You have huge leaks that are much more significant than not extracting the perfect amount of value on a miracle river.

-Steve

[registrar]

What's villain got? He's got any two and then he's hit the board enough to bet the pot five way and call a turn bet. I think we can narrow down a range quite a lot here and I quite like a check-raise or check-call depending on how much he bets and how. I don't see flopped bottom two calling much of a bet, nor PPs<9. If we are going to get full value from playing 85s UTG, this is the only way I can see doing it.

[locutus2002]

I usually only open jacks or better UTG, and fold to a rereaise with most of my hands.

Building a stack early is the most important thing in a small stack tournament, and building a stack means playing frequently, aggressively, and usually means with the worst cards.

Dude, GL in 2007. GAP will not save you.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
and building a stack means playing frequently, aggressively, and usually means with the worst cards.

[/ QUOTE ]Limping UTG with 85s is not playing agressivly. Playing with the worst cards OOP is -EV, and whatever the structure, poker is STILL about making +EV decisions.

[shaundeeb]

Yah building a stack is key but this is not the hand, position, board, or an key factor in picking a spot to chip up. These are the hands that hinder chipping up as I said in my earlier post you are doing nothing plus -EV moves on each street here.

[Requin]

I'd shove river, rest of the hand is a trainwreck though.