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#1
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Definately a call. [/ QUOTE ] Could you explain why definately a call ? [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, I should have clarified my thinking. As played, definately a call. I probably would have just call his original raise. With OP's read, folding is too weak, especially to what is esentially a mini-raise. A fold here is very exploitable. |
#2
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Calling 1.9$ to win 10$ is very -EV Imo, and that is considering you stack him every time you flop a set, wich you only do about once out of 8.5
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#3
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yeah low pps you want to see a cheap flop really, prfereably not for 10% of your stack. I'd rather do this with 99+ AQ+ or hands like T3o (probably not at 10NL though!). The problem with over aggression at this level is that they won't fold often enough really, so you want to be pushing your pf value only with premium hands. Speculative hands you want to see the flop and out-play them from there. Not much room to do that when the pot is so big before the flop.
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#4
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I see your point. However, you need to take a few other things into consideration:
1.) There will be times I'm taking this pot down without flopping a set. 2.) Given OP's reads, his range is WIDE OPEN. I don't want him to think he can come over the top of me with any 2 and I'm going to fold. Maybe I'm thinking too much here, I'd be interested in other thoughts on this... |
#5
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Is calling for set value actually +EV in this situation?
Let's say we were to just flat call the first raise and play it for set value only. Of the times we make our set we're not going to get much value out of the hand a lot of the time unless villain makes top pair or something. When we 3bet hands like this at 10NL you have to be very selective about who your opponents are, but their are villains who will fold after making an attempt to steal. Even if you get called, you can either A)hit a set and take the pot down on the flop or extract lots of monies from later streets, or B)Take it down with a cbet. B would obviously have to take into account board texture and what not, but the flop is going to miss villain a large percentage of the time. Now we might be beat on the flop and have to fold to a raise. So be it. It's all good for shania, and we're picking fights with somebody that we're going to have position on most of the time, so now we're more likely to get into a huge pot later on with this player when we have a hand where we want to get it in. The advice on not doing this sort of thing at 10NL has merit. But believe it or not there are some players who do think, and perhaps will just outthink themselves into folding in this situation. Doesnt have to be done often either for it to be profitable. Each time he steals your SB and you fold, you lose your .05 and your equity in the pot. If you can pull this off once in awhile you can get a lot of those small blinds back in what hand. To the OP, I think you've played the hand well here. Good fold and nice try to resteal. Chances are villain is going to continue to steal just as frequently from this point on and when you've got a big hand and play back at him, you stand a good chance at stacking him. Sometimes you have to give action to get it. |
#6
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If you trust your read, call.
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#7
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Bowl,
I don't know if you mean calling after the first raise or after the second. Anyway, to call for set value you need very high implied odds. My own calculations suggest that you have to be certain to win at least ten times the amount you call for pre-flop every time you hit your set. Others have done the maths and have convincingly put that number as high as 17 times your pre-flop call. After his last raise there is no way you can call profitably for set value. |
#8
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Triggerle this is why my reply to OP begins with 'Is calling for set value here actually +EV?' Because button is stealing and could have anything that will miss the flop completely I'm arguing that 3betting>calling since you cant be sure to get that much action after the flop each and everytime you make a set. I do however agree with folding to the reraise preflop as the OP did in the hand. At no point did I advocate calling here. Sorry if my post is badly structured and difficult to read. I'm a horrible writer.
If the raise were from UTG then calling with a pocket pair for set value is pretty well always the best play since the chances are you are up against a strong hand that you will likely get action from. It seems to me the opposite applies when defending your blind. Whether or not to 3bet this depends a lot on villain, your table image, and also any history you've had against this player. |
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