5-10 live deep

[sasha]

effective stacks 3k
Playing in a private game.
My 4th or 5th hand at the table.
mp - very good player raises to $40
mp2 calls
hero c/o calls with 55
sb calls
bb calls

flop
6910 rainbow, it"s checked around
turn
A , it"s checked around again
River, (here it gets fun)
5 (no fluh on board)
sb checks
bb checks
mp bets $125
mp+2 fold
hero makes it $350
sb folds
bb raises to $1100
mp folds
Hero?

Read on bb:
I"ve only played with him once, he i a pretty bad player.
I don"t think he is bluffing in this spot,actually I"m pretty sure he is not bluffing.
Whatever he has, he likes his hand.
I just can"t put him on hand, that checks 3 times.
He may overvalue some hands.
Whats my action?

[jkkkk]

if he doesn't bluff like this, its a pretty easy fold.

[thedustbustr]

78

[calbearsone]

Tough hand, especially since you don’t have a good read on the BB’s play this session. It’s helpful to know how he plays in general, but how he was playing that night is much more important information. But you don’t, and IMO there is no right answer to this situation. It’s one of those times that going with your gut instincts actually might be the profitable play (unless you have zero intuition). That being said, I will give my far from expert analysis…
You noted that our villain (BB) is a pretty bad player. This indicates to me that it’s unlikely he has you beat since the hands that beat you had a monster from the flop, with the exception of AA which turned a monster. If he had AA, 1010, 99, 66, or 87 he would bet the river in a desperate attempt to get something, and it would have been a milker, baby bet. If he is good enough to look left and anticipate a river bet after all that checking then you have seriously misread him for a bad player. I will assume you didn’t.
What seems likely is aces up. Villain checks the flop with a midpair because he is not confident, or checks with A10 hoping to checkraise. When the ace hits the turn our villain checks again which is typical from a poor player. His river check is still funny, but it makes more sense if his hand was a work in progress. Perhaps the 5 helped him make two pair. This is mathematically unlikely, but it fits the betting pattern the best. I also favor him having aces up since he called a raise PF. Bad players LOVE to protect their blinds with Ax….
Additionally, there are more ways our villain can have an inferior hand. There are 28 ways to have AA, 1010, 99, 66, or 78 (3*4+16=28), and coincidentally there are 28 ways to make aces up (9*3+1=28). Add in the many possible ways to make two smaller pair, however unlikely it may be, and those odds are on your side too. If we compare that with your pot odds I think calling shows profit. The pot by the final river raise is 1775 (200+125+350+1100=1775) and you have to call 750 (1100-350=750), so your getting 2.33 to 1. And, not to undermine your reads at all, but there is still the possibility of a bluff. Without it, I think a call is still +EV since the villain in question plays bad, so the minor chance of a bluff is the clincher. Finally, since it’s early in the session and you’re in a private game, a call will label you as table sheriff which might make some future decisions easier.
I have never asked this before, but will you PM me the results? I’m really curious….thanks.

[sasha]

I thought about it for a while. my firt insinct was that he floped a straight,and I almost folded.
Than the backthought in my mind, that he can overvalue some hands made me call this.
Also him checking all 3 times did it also.
I called he showed 78 for the nuts.
Like they say trust your first instinct.