#1
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How to figure odds
How do you figure the odds of the following happening?
Playing 9 handed, you are dealt 10Qh in the big blind. 6 people stay in the hand with no raises. Flop comes A59h. sb checks, bb bets 800 next 2 fold last 3 call the 800. Turn comes 6c, all check. River is 8d. At this point only one hand will beat the big blind, someone holding the Kh with another h. How are the odds figured? My math is not up to it. That scenario has happened twice in the last week and I lost both of them. Only my second post, but I do read regularly. Thanks in advance for any help. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] |
#2
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Re: How to figure odds
let's say it was 1%.
how does that matter? what will you do differently in your life now that you have that information? |
#3
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Re: How to figure odds
you read the forum regularly yet you still make a post like this.
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#4
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Re: How to figure odds
Some regulars here like to chastise newbies. I suppose it gives then a sense of something or other I wouldn't like to mention. If you are in the wrong place, a nice suggestion to move to the correct forum would be helpful.
Regarding your question: There are 45 unseen cards. 1 of them is the Kh. The odds of your opponent having being dealt that card at this point is 2/45, in the absence of any other information. However, you have additional information. He called a bet. To simplify greatly, let's assume (gross simplifying assumption) for the sake of discussion he can see the flop as well as you can and would only call your bet with a flush of his own. Now, the odds are 2/8 *at worst* that he holds the Kh. Further, if he is a very tight sound player who probably would not be in this situation without two hearts including a top heart (K or maybe J), now the odds are 50-50 *at worst* he holds specifically the Kh and a smaller heart. See how that goes? A bet on the flop and maybe turn also would greatly help clarify. Checking allows Kh any-other-card to beat you if another heart (or boat or worse) comes. Not good. Point is, I think, it's about much more than the "odds." Betting introduces a dynamic that affects the actions of others (and yourself). Checking doesn't positively advance the position, allow you to acquire information or gain you any $$ - some things to think about in the context of this particular situation. Your opponent, on the other hand, can trap until the River with much less risk if he holds the nut flush. In the world of bridge, there is a principle called the Rule of Restricted Choice. Simply stated, a card played conveys information about what the player does *not* have, otherwise he might have made an alternative play. Something similar operates in poker. By his taking an action (calling in this case), an inference can be drawn that the player does not have one of the many hands that (logically) would not have called. Or, the range of hands he holds has been significantly narrowed and that narrow range is much more likely (given the action) to contain the nut flush holding than many other borderline or worse holdings. In other words, after the call it has become a much more likely holding than you might think, and certainly more likely than just any two randomly dealt cards happening to turn up KhXh. |
#5
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Re: How to figure odds
The odds that a player holds a higher flush than you are pretty small especially if there is only one card higher. It's like having a set over set scenario. The best way to tell is through the way the hand has been bet and how your opponents would bet certain hands.
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#6
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Re: How to figure odds
Sorry. There was a Flop bet. Meant to say bet on Turn would clarify.
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#7
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Re: How to figure odds
Thank you for the response.
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