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#1
02-05-2007, 12:57 PM
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Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
I track my winrate carefully and so far in 2007 have made $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours. About 50% of time was playing 4/8 with full kill, other 50% was standard 4/8. Game is typically about 5.5 players see the flop with around 30-40% of pots raised preflop. Maybe 2-5% of time gets rerasised and/or capped pre flop, usually due to gamblers having fun rather then having really good cards. Lots of the time I get chased to the river with someone holding a bad draw or hopeless hand. I can not play a hand for 30 minutes, raise under the gun and still get 4 callers, these folks cold call two raises all night with anything they think is playable.
I play a fairly strong game as I learned from Sklansky/Miller/Malmuth SSHE. I count the pot, try to protect my hands ect. Tight and aggressive but I still make errors, I never come away from a session without thinking of a play I should have done differently. My question is this to the experts? Does this winrate seem way out of line? I told my wife that over the long term I should probably win $15-20 per hour. What do you think? BTW- many thanks to Mrrs Sklansky, Miller and Malmuth for sharing the invaluable information provided in SSHE. 
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#2
02-05-2007, 01:04 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
I think those loose live games can definitely generate close 4bb/hr for really really good players...
However I'd say for most of us 2BB/hr is more reasonable... These games have huge swings for the better and worse, and losing a few huge pots due to damn variance could easily bring your winrate down to a reasonable number... I'd say your calculated 15-20 is right in the range a good player could expect...
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#3
02-05-2007, 01:15 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
Playing in the kill game certainly adds money, as a tight player I pay the $8 required to post for winning two hand in a row very rarely and seem OK( dont get too tight) when playing at the 8/16 level. The people that play in the kill game are the best part! Often we get folks who are waiting to play in the 20/40 (wait list) who play, believe it or not they are the best to play against. Super loose and aggressive at least up to the flop, guess 4/8 feels like micro stakes to them and they just have fun.
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#4
02-05-2007, 01:24 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
Sounds like you are a decent player, and you've been here for a while. Maybe you could contribute a little to the forum?
As for you question, I think $35/hour maybe a bit high, but it sounds like my local live game. and from my experience the games are super weak, but variance can cut into your winrate. Good luck.
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#5
02-05-2007, 07:22 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
Sounds like you've been running well. I play 4/8 also and am running at $25/hr so far in '07.
Unfortunately, variance will catch up with both of us and based on my '06 numbers your $15/hr guess is more like it.
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#7
02-05-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
[ QUOTE ]
I think those loose live games can definitely generate close 4bb/hr for really really good players... However I'd say for most of us 2BB/hr is more reasonable... These games have huge swings for the better and worse, and losing a few huge pots due to damn variance could easily bring your winrate down to a reasonable number... I'd say your calculated 15-20 is right in the range a good player could expect... [/ QUOTE ] 4 BB/hour? I aim for like 2 when I play live. Am I selling myself short or is 2 even too high to expect?
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#8
02-05-2007, 08:23 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
[ QUOTE ]
I think those loose live games can definitely generate close 4bb/hr for really really good players... [/ QUOTE ] LOL. Uh...no. It won't even come close to 4BBs/hour. At this limit rake will cut into profit quite a bit. If you average 1bb/hour you're doing pretty well. b
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#9
02-05-2007, 09:14 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
Thanks for raising the issue of rake............. Rake is very dependent on the looseness of the game. I played about 2000 simulated hands on Turbo HE. Game was very aggressive, about 60% raised and average of 4.1 players seeing the flop. Almost every player was negative at 2000 hands, rake of $4 =about $7000 in rake. Best player of the 10 was about $200 positive, worst player was about $3500 negative. However if you have one extra player seeing a raised pot, average of 5 seeing the flop that completely covers the rake.
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#10
02-05-2007, 09:25 PM
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Re: Winrate of $35 per hour in 4/8 limit gate over 65 hours!
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for raising the issue of rake............. Rake is very dependent on the looseness of the game. I played about 2000 simulated hands on Turbo HE. Game was very aggressive, about 60% raised and average of 4.1 players seeing the flop. Almost every player was negative at 2000 hands, rake of $4 =about $7000 in rake. Best player of the 10 was about $200 positive, worst player was about $3500 negative. However if you have one extra player seeing a raised pot, average of 5 seeing the flop that completely covers the rake. [/ QUOTE ] Even if it covers it, it's still significant. You have to look at rake in proportion to the limit you're playing. You have to look at how much is coming off the table in an hour. Which is why if the rake is the same on 2-4 as it is 4-8, 4-8 is obviously alot better bargain. Especially since both games, imo, play alot alike. b
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