wtf does my opponent have? (deep sunday million hand with AQ)

[Evenkeal]

Seat 1: DR TOOTH (162987 in chips)
Seat 2: BKiCe (101840 in chips)
Seat 3: AlphaWice (304974 in chips)
Seat 4: eriholer (107014 in chips)
Seat 5: bugsyfslagle (79353 in chips)
Seat 6: Brian40_02 (118632 in chips)
Seat 7: jimak (310235 in chips)
Seat 8: Bayesian (157053 in chips)
Seat 9: Eich1000 (101916 in chips)
Everyone posts 300 ante.

Brian40_02: posts small blind 3000
jimak: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AlphaWice [As Qs]
Bayesian: folds
Eich1000: folds
DR TOOTH: folds
BKiCe: folds
AlphaWice: raises 10000 to 16000
eriholer: folds
bugsyfslagle: folds
Brian40_02: folds
jimak: calls 10000
*** FLOP *** [Qc Kd Jc]
jimak: checks
AlphaWice: checks, I checked behind here because I did not want to see a CR, I had been raising/cbetting alot previously, and my hand has showdown value
*** TURN *** [Qc Kd Jc] [5h]
jimak: bets 18000
AlphaWice: calls 18000
*** RIVER *** [Qc Kd Jc 5h] [8h]
jimak: bets 275935 and is all-in
AlphaWice is really confused about villian's holdings, and looked up that he is -44% roi in these donkaments over a decent sample.

[Bob Loblaw]

he almost certainly does not have worse than you do.

[SossMan]

I'm going with the nuts.

[goblue2k6]

Would be a debatable call for sure.

[DeMaci]

910 sooooted.

[Jetfanmack]

I wouldn't call that. Not enough in the pot to do that, especially since there are a number of hands he could have (AA, any K, JQ, a set, 9-10, 10A).

[kurtkatt]

This is a situation i would expect that villain either he got 1,2,3rd nuts or nada nothing. Would many ppl be capable of valuepushing kx here? qj? jj? 10 9?

If villain is any good he probably have u on a hand exactly where u are. And he knows u cannot call this bet.


This decision, if u thinking about anything but fold, are so read/history dependant that i base the decision entirely on that.


sidenote. in the lowlimit stuff i play i do these kinda call too often (with less freqency nowadays i belive) where opponents line doesnt make sense if he doesnt have nuts or nothing. There i can say that many ppl are quite capable of valuepushing kx here....

[Proofrock]

Without a read that he overbet push bluffs regularly, you have to fold. People very rarely bluff push like this, and you notice those that do pretty quickly.

As for what he could have -- my vote is for any huge hand -- JJ+,AT,T9 ... the big bet itself is the biggest indication that you're crushed. No reason to do anything but fold here - even if he *could* have a worse hand here, he certainly doesn't with a high enough frequency for you to be able to profitably call.

[registrar]

He's beating second pair.

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
He's beating second pair.

[/ QUOTE ]