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#51
02-04-2007, 02:48 AM
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Re: The Well: Performify
Consider the "typical" sports bettor that eventually goes busto (I'm thinking of the guy at the corner bar or someone who puts 1k into Bodog). Rank these factors from most to least important for why they go busto:
a) Handicapping (choosing the wrong side to frequently) b) Bank roll management (betting to high a % of their BR) c) Line Shopping (not finding the best line) d) Not taking advantage of bonii or arbs e) Other How often have you been ripped off on a sports bet? Please specify online vs. casino vs. bookie. When you decide to choose a side in an NFL game how do you choose moneyline or spread? Based on NFL data from the last ten years I created a converter to decide which was better. This system basically used the idea that when a team wins, they tend to win by x or more points y% of the time. I then worked backwards to turn this into a moneyline and compare it to published moneyline. Do you think a strictly nemerical evaluation can be used to make the decision on ML vs. spread or do you think that it is necesary to evaluate the details of each game to decide which choice is better? Why do you think that there is a push to outlaw online gambling? Do you see any sign that things will change? What did you think of the overtime pass interferenc call in the OSU vs. Miami National Championship game? Have you ever seen evidence or strongly suspected that any sporting event was fixed or point shaved? If so which one and why? 
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#52
02-04-2007, 02:55 AM
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Re: The Well: Performify
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1) What is an arbitrage? [/ QUOTE ] Arbitrage is the simultaneous (or near-simultaneous) purchase and sale of two similar/identical assets that are incorrectly priced relative to each other. For instance, if you could find the Bears at +235 and the Colts at -225 for tomorrow's Super Bowl, there's value in betting both sides. With the proper sizing you can lock in a guaranteed profit. Arbitrage is very popular on Wall Street. It is the mechanism that keeps prices "in line" relative to each other. For instance, on a particular stock there might be options, futures, warrants, convertible bonds, etc. It might also be a major component of indexes that are traded as futures, options, ETFs, etc. All these instruments form a giant matrix. When a piece of the puzzle is out of line, the arbs act quickly to restore order. One of the beauties of arbitrage is that you don't have to identify which leg of the spread is fairly priced and which is over/under-priced. All that matters is identifying the fact that such a pricing disparity exists. Arbitrage is not risk-free. Execution error and being "hung on a leg" are expensive hazards. Few Wall Street arbitrage plays are as pure as the Super Bowl bets mentioned above. Usually there is some "dirt" in them that makes them an imperfect arb. Imperfect is actually a good thing for a sharp arb. It allows for things to get out of line more easily. As a for-instance, I used to trade on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade. I traded calendar arbitrage (the difference between various delivery months) in the Dow Jones futures and also an arb between Dow futures and S&P 500 futures. While the Dow and S&P are highly correlated it's not a perfect arb, allowing for a natural ebb and flow which created opportunities. Also, many arbitrage plays are based on reversion to the mean. However, there is nothing that guarantees that prices must return to "normal." Sometimes a fundamental shift in the underlying market can crush an arb. (A couple months ago the Wheat futures pit at the Chicago Board of Trade was decimated by a shift in historical relationships between delivery months. At least four locals--independent market makers--blew out and estimates of losses by locals in the Wheat pit were around $100 million.) In the words of the immortal John Maynard Keynes (who was himself a great trader), "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Another challenge with arbitrage is that it's very capital intensive. The edges are small and fleeting. You need to put on a lot of size (often with a lot of leverage) to make it worthwhile. Also, overhead can be high, at least for the Wall Street version. Low execution costs are vital to a successful arb operation (because the edges are small) as is real-time access to prices and execution (because the edges are fleeting). On Wall Street only pros can get the kind of clearing and execution rates that make arbitrage viable. And they are typically the only ones who have instant access to prices and execution capabilities. The loss of Pinny was a crippling blow to the U.S. sports arbitrage market. In fact, it caused me to scrap plans to put together a pool of money to form a sports arb syndicate. Finally, arbitrage isn't for everyone because it's...well, quite frankly, it's a boring way to trade/bet. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy it and many mansions in the Hamptons were built on arbitrage, but it's not a game for an action player. They get bored with the lack of action and invariably do something stupid to make it more interesting. My apologies for stepping in Performify's Well, but I figured since he was busy blogging... [/ QUOTE ] vnh sir
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#53
02-04-2007, 02:58 AM
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Re: The Well: Performify
what do you value more in sports betting...trends or power rankings? injuries? opinions? ect
And when it comes down to sports betting who's opinion do you value the most? (ie jim rome, arnie spaniard, ect)
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#54
02-04-2007, 03:28 AM
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Re: The Well: Performify
[ QUOTE ]
Consider the "typical" sports bettor that eventually goes busto (I'm thinking of the guy at the corner bar or someone who puts 1k into Bodog). Rank these factors from most to least important for why they go busto: a) Handicapping (choosing the wrong side to frequently) b) Bank roll management (betting to high a % of their BR) c) Line Shopping (not finding the best line) d) Not taking advantage of bonii or arbs e) Other [/ QUOTE ] From most to least important on why they go busto: B) no question, the guy on the corner usually bets way beyond an acceptable RoR C) not finding the best line is huge - a monkey can usually pick close to 50% winners, and if a monkey had access to the best available lines at all times, they'd have a decent chance of not going busto just picking at random. A) might surprise some people, but I'd strongly say picking the wrong side consistently is only #3 D) bonus chasing and arbs are great for enhancing ROI, but its not why people are going busto [ QUOTE ] How often have you been ripped off on a sports bet? Please specify online vs. casino vs. bookie. [/ QUOTE ] Very very infrequently. I could probably count the times on a single hand, and those have always been bets with people in real life at an event. I don't usually bet with people I can't be pretty sure are going to pay me, or with lower-tier sites. I have gotten numerous handfuls of bets canceled online for "obviously incorrect lines" which you could argue was ripping me off - but I wasn't actually losing money just losing the opportunity to make money. [ QUOTE ] When you decide to choose a side in an NFL game how do you choose moneyline or spread? Based on NFL data from the last ten years I created a converter to decide which was better. This system basically used the idea that when a team wins, they tend to win by x or more points y% of the time. I then worked backwards to turn this into a moneyline and compare it to published moneyline. Do you think a strictly nemerical evaluation can be used to make the decision on ML vs. spread or do you think that it is necesary to evaluate the details of each game to decide which choice is better? [/ QUOTE ] Moneyline vs Spread is generally pure math. I likewise have a converter based on historical numbers and agree that's the appropriate approach to take. I do think that adding some analytics is always good though. There are definitely times in the NFL where I will buck the math for the situation based on analysis, like saying this team is much more likely to win a game if its close in the end because they're good in the clutch (Patriots, Colts, for example, or back in the day the 49ers under Montana), or bucked the other side because a team might traditionally have trouble keeping games close, it was either a win or a blowout loss (San Francisco last year, for example). [ QUOTE ] Why do you think that there is a push to outlaw online gambling? Do you see any sign that things will change? [/ QUOTE ] Bread and circuses. Our legislature cannot do anything about the real problems facing the US right now, so they are tilting at windmills. I also blame the "religious right" and their obvious need to legislate morality. I have hope that things will change, simply because there is a lot of money at stake for the casinos. I strongly expect, and have written about this before in the legislation forum, that we will be playing poker online legally at Harrahs.com (and betting sports legally online at theVenetian.com) within two to three years at most. The only question for me right now, is will the legislation kill the popularity of poker between now and then. Sports betting will never die as it well predates the internet, but poker's popularity could dissolve just as quickly as it emerged. [ QUOTE ] What did you think of the overtime pass interferenc call in the OSU vs. Miami National Championship game? [/ QUOTE ] This might surprise you, might surprise a lot of people. But I didn't see it. I didn't read about it. I didn't even really hear much about it. If you'd asked me "what did you think about the controversial happening in the OSU vs Miami Nat'l Championship Game" I couldn't have told you what it was without consulting google. In fact, I couldn't have told you who OSU played in the game without consulting google. I watch sports center off my DVR and I only usually watch the relevant parts that interest me, which includes skipping most all NCAAF. I'm not a NCAAF or NCAAB fan as a whole, i only watch teams that I follow as a very casual fan (Notre Dame, Mizzou, North Carolina, Nebraska). My head is full of mixed martial arts and NFL football. I've almost completely abandoned any sort of fan interest in all other sports. [ QUOTE ] Have you ever seen evidence or strongly suspected that any sporting event was fixed or point shaved? If so which one and why? [/ QUOTE ] I've definitely seen evidence in NCAAB. Numerous exposes have been written. To my understanding, basketball is by far the easiest sport to shave points in and to do so relatively undetected. I've long suspected various boxing matches to be fixed over the years but have no direct evidence.
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#55
02-04-2007, 03:35 AM
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Re: The Well: Performify
[ QUOTE ]
what do you value more in sports betting...trends or power rankings? injuries? opinions? ect [/ QUOTE ] trends are almost entirely worthless, at least what bettors usually refer to as trends - "this team is 14-4 ATS on turf after a loss" for example. If by trends you mean "winning subsets", i.e. home underdogs are covering ATS at 70% this year, then yes those can be very valuable if you can idenfify them with an appropriate confidence level. I do use power rankings to help identify opportunities, as I previously covered in how I handicap the NFL. They're only a part of my capping. The biggest thing I value in NFL betting is offensive line / defensive line individual matchups. [ QUOTE ] And when it comes down to sports betting who's opinion do you value the most? (ie jim rome, arnie spaniard, ect) [/ QUOTE ] I usually make all of my decisions completely independent of anyone else's opinion. After I've set my lines through my system and identified opportunities, I will run through the usual list of other cappers for their thoughts, but more trying to take advantage of any of the things they've found in their own research. I'll never - or almost never - reverse a position on a pick based on reading someone else's writeup on the NFL. MMA is a different world, i'll definitely solicit input from a lot of people I respect because there are so many information asymmetries in MMA right now.
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#59
02-04-2007, 05:45 PM
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Re: The Well: Performify
[ QUOTE ]
Performify, In winning close ones in football, this would be because of the ability or lack thereof for the QB to run the 2 minute drill? [/ QUOTE ] That would be a factor for sure. Especially an entire team's ability to execute a two-minute drill. Same goes for defense - traditionally I will find more value in the moneyline compared to a small spread for a team playing Marty Schottenheimer, as his unmovable stubbornness to move out of the prevent defense costs him a lot of close games, etc. There are just teams and players and coordinators who are statistically better in clutch situations (or worse) than other teams...
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#60
02-04-2007, 05:51 PM
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Re: The Well: Performify
Performify,
This is due to their deftness at running the 2 min drill or preventing it I assume? I know in baseball clutch hitting is vastly overrated. Like there are well known choke artists, but being able to perform much better is pretty meh. Though I feel in something which has such rampant cocahing discrepancies, such as football there could be a solid advantage or disadvantage like you explained.
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