OK so how would you go about showing poker is a game of skill?

[CrayZee]

The problem with poker is that the game involves both skill and luck. A skill/luck duality, if you will. Assuming one plays well against his or her competition at a rate higher than rake+toke, then luck (or bad luck) is just noise in the short run whereas skill is the signal that shows up later. The larger the hand sample, not allowing for changes in competition skill, the closer the win rate a particular player will converge to asymptotically. At some point, the confidence interval will be close to 100%.

Players also vary in skill at particular time intervals (e.g. tilting, getting better, etc).

Skillful poker, in terms of positive monetary gains, is a game of taking advantage of inefficiencies of betting patterns against the competition during the present time.

What's odd to me is that people can perceive derivatives trading as a skill game whereas poker a game of luck. I guess something involving Fortune 500 companies or market indexes gets respect whereas a casino card game does not.

You see stock touts like Jim Cramer on TV ironically saying things like "gambling is the opiate of the masses" for his internet gambling company picks. Pretty funny.

[Albert Moulton]

I think poker has a lot in common with aggressive forms of banking. I know a hedge fund manager who will take major positions "short" or "long" in ways to hide his total position from competitors. His competitors do the same. There are rules, and within the rules, if one player has a big hand but plays it badly, then the other players can dilute or even destroy his winnings. But if he plays the hand well, he can clean up - usually at the expense of some of the other players.

Is high stakes investing a form of gambling? I think it has a lot in common, that's for sure. There is definitely an element of chance. The weather for example. The profitability of my position in June on heating oil or oranges, for example, will very depending on the weather over the winter and spring.

But options trading and similar banking activities is obviously a game of skill in which people spend their lives trying to get the most money in on +EV situations, maximize wins, and minimize loses.

Just like poker.

[jschaud]

[ QUOTE ]
I think poker has a lot in common with aggressive forms of banking. I know a hedge fund manager who will take major positions "short" or "long" in ways to hide his total position from competitors. His competitors do the same. There are rules, and within the rules, if one player has a big hand but plays it badly, then the other players can dilute or even destroy his winnings. But if he plays the hand well, he can clean up - usually at the expense of some of the other players.

Is high stakes investing a form of gambling? I think it has a lot in common, that's for sure. There is definitely an element of chance. The weather for example. The profitability of my position in June on heating oil or oranges, for example, will very depending on the weather over the winter and spring.

But options trading and similar banking activities is obviously a game of skill in which people spend their lives trying to get the most money in on +EV situations, maximize wins, and minimize loses.

Just like poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this analogy. Pretty much everything in the world is subject to some element of chance. Poker does rely on it more heavily in the short term than a lot of things.

[Black_Angler]

[ QUOTE ]
Easier said that done, perhaps.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think it is actually quite simple.

Any game that is not house-backed and a player can gain an edge based upon unaided skill is a game of skill. So we all know you cannot beat roulette, craps, online blackjack and most slot machines in the long run without cheating. Sports betting is a game of skill but it is house-backed.

The reason for killing the house-backed games is because usually legislation tends to lean much more in favor of skill games if they are paid by other players. This is why in LA we have tons of poker rooms on non indian land, and they offer blackjack and pai gow but it is a mutant, player backed version.

Now, this would open the door for peer to peer sports betting (something that began to take off last time I poked my head into that area of the gambling world, but I have not checked up on that lately).

That's at least, how I would go about it.

DW

[demon102]

[ QUOTE ]
Money is involved so it's gambling.

[/ QUOTE ]

stupid !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I could argue getting up in the morning and driving to work is a gamble a much more dangerous gamble than losing my buying for a sng.

[gintron]

Provide 500k+ hand graphs of winning players. Its obvious when you look at the steady upward slope over this many hands that luck isnt the deciding factor in poker.

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the problem is that the courts are trying to decide whether poker is a game of skill or luck. Obviously it is a skill game that involves luck. I've never understood what exactly they are trying to decide. Chess is a game involving all skill and no luck, while baccarat involves all luck and no skill, and poker is in between--along with things like every single sport on earth.

[/ QUOTE ]


ball bounces on way or the other...

wind...

etc.



I think there is also a case that "luck" plays a role in chess. If there was literally no luck, why would two players playing together have different results from one game to another?*



(*luck in the normal sense of the word - no one has sufficient information to predict the outcome)

[D.L.M.]

this legislation is not about wether the game is skillfull or not. the stock market is a more disturbing form of gambling in a sense. and the racetrack certainly isnt skillfull. the law affected somebody in a positive way. that somebody paid off alot of suits to get it through. just like in my state how drinking tickets have gone up and cigarettes are taxed alot. trust me they dont want us to quit smoking or drinking under age, they just want to get more money from things certain to happen.
we have new seatbelt laws because the insurance companys hate medical bills and wrongfull death suits
trust me there is an invisible hand in play here, we just need to find out who it is.

[D.L.M.]

and investment of anything that result in an uncertain outcome is gambling. almost every thing we do has some kind of gamble to it.

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
this legislation is not about wether the game is skillfull or not. the stock market is a more disturbing form of gambling in a sense. and the racetrack certainly isnt skillfull. the law affected somebody in a positive way. that somebody paid off alot of suits to get it through. just like in my state how drinking tickets have gone up and cigarettes are taxed alot. trust me they dont want us to quit smoking or drinking under age, they just want to get more money from things certain to happen.
we have new seatbelt laws because the insurance companys hate medical bills and wrongfull death suits
trust me there is an invisible hand in play here, we just need to find out who it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't understand what this has to do with how to prove poker is a game of skill.