My One Debatable Play At The Borgata - Page 6

curious123 · #51 01-30-2007, 07:14 PM

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I folded. Even though I was sure pushing was positive EV. The fact that the table was easy and that I would be the button next hand, meant that a slight positive EV wouldn't be good enough.

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David, may I ask where you draw the line on "slight +EV" here (in chips)?

Jeff76 · #52 01-31-2007, 02:33 PM

I push this almost every time.

leaponthis · #53 01-31-2007, 03:29 PM

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I folded.

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Duh!

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The fact that the table was easy and that I would be the button next hand, meant that a slight positive EV wouldn't be good enough. So the right play is in fact debatable.

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My very thoughts. Is it better to push a small +EV or wait for a better situation? One of the problems with pushing the small EV is the likelyhood of ruin. Even though you might be SURE of a long term gain you are likely giving up a bigger gain by waiting. You're broke, you're gone. One of the problems with waiting is that you may go "situation" dead. A better situation for accumulating chips may not arise. Here you are giving up a "positive" situation that may provide you with a great deal of waiting, even enough chips to play poker and allow all of your poker skills to be used. Predicting that a better situation will arise is not easy. I'm wondering if it is not better in tournaments to take these positive situations as soon as they arise even with a mediocre stack. But especially when you have a small stack. By that I mean that even if you have to make questionable calls it might be right to do so.

The fact that the table was easy is certainly a factor but how easy does it need to be is the question? With only 130 players remaining it seems to me that most of the truly bad players were gone. Although, I'm sure there were still a few bad players left.

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I went on to double up, but then faced the same situation with two kings. And I wasn't good enough to realize that the big blind would wake up with two aces.

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This couldn't possibly have been even close to the same situation. You had double the stack size. And I'm sure that you were "smart" enough to understand that the BB could wake up with ACes. And you had Kings not Deuces. But if by playing the Deuces the results allowed you to accumulate enough chips to mitigate the Kings vs Aces situation and survive with enough chips to do something then you only strengthen the arguement for playing the deuces. We have to assume that you win with the deuces (if you move in) or else this hand doesn't occur. Because you would be out. So had you played the deuces and won you could have built a big stack that would have stopped you from going broke on a one hander like Kings vs Aces. These situation arise quite frequently. The fellows on the MTT forums like to try and make them simple math exrercises but they are not simple. They are debateable.

I unbanned myself because you asked "why" and I coudn't come upp with a good enough reason since this is the Sklansky forum and not the Dids and Dynasty Forum.

leaponthis

Piers · #54 01-31-2007, 08:19 PM

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The fact that the table was easy and

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An easy table also increases the value of doubling up from a short stack. A larger stack means you can expect to stay and apply your edge longer before busting, as well as being able to utilize your skill more with a deeper stack.

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I would be the button next hand,

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Well yes, but I would not put the value of that at any more than 0.25BigBlinds, if that. I doubt that would be enough to change anything.

If it were anyone else, I would suspect the “don’t want to leave the party early” delusion. Where you decide you’re enjoying the game too much to leave, so arrange your reasoning accordingly.

chipschangs · #55 01-31-2007, 08:30 PM

Post deleted by David Sklansky

leaponthis · #56 01-31-2007, 08:55 PM

now

George Rice · #57 01-31-2007, 10:47 PM

See, we can agree on something.

valenzuela · #58 02-01-2007, 12:24 AM

If the button has been stealing a lot, I go all-in.
With the description Sklansky gave I push.

Jeff76 · #59 02-02-2007, 11:53 AM

I posted a very quick response before because I was short on time, but this is why I push in these spots a lot: A good agressive button will be raising a lot of hands here and calling with very few. This is a good chance to not only grab some chips, but also to show the button that he will not be able to run over your blinds. So while the play has some moderate +EV expectation right now (which shouldn't be ignored, as we need to get chips), it also has some future +EV expectation due to the image we are creating. If we can cause the button's raising range to tighten up in future hands, we gain.

argybargy2002 · #60 02-03-2007, 04:06 PM

The other thing we shouldn't forget is that +EV situations are cumulative and exponential. By this I mean that if this is a +EV situation (and I'm not saying it is) then we can expect to earn so many chips (say "x"). So your stack becomes "50 000 + x". When (if) you double at a later date your stack becomes "100 000 + 2x". Thus taking the +ev situation now can have an exponential effect on your stack as in any subsequent double ups you will feel the effects of that x grow and grow.

I couldn't count the number of times I've been annoyed at myself for making a mistake with a marginal hand; only to get aces straight after and double through a big stack. The mistake I made with the marginal hand has now been doubled.