NL50: Rivered set facing minraise deep

[LordTacohead]

If I had observed villain over a meaningful number of hands and had a good idea that he only raised (or minraised) with monsters, I would totally agree. However, my sample was small, probably no more than 50 hands at that point.

The more I think about it, the more I think that a raise is probably good. A guy who slowplays AK on the turn might also slowplay QJ/QT, then raise the river for value. The better question is probably whether I should be calling his 4-bet. I'm getting better than 3:1 at that point, but it's questionable whether I'm actually ahead that often. I simply don't have the experience to say.

[En Passant]

Just call the min raise. I think re raising is stupid.

[Numfar]

[ QUOTE ]
If I had observed villain over a meaningful number of hands and had a good idea that he only raised (or minraised) with monsters, I would totally agree. However, my sample was small, probably no more than 50 hands at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's still a read though and you must take advantage of it. If it was just PT numbers I would agree but it's not - you've actually seen him doing it. You said you have seen him play with TP so did he min-raise with it?

Making reads is one of the things that sets us apart from the donks so don't ignore them - the issue here is really what does villain think is a monster (as CTN said it could be 2 pair).

Edited to remove something irrelevant about top pair. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]