200NL | AA vs Ugly Board and a Shove.

[Corpsebean]

Tribeca so no converter, here's the hand...Villain was 50/10 over 122 and I was playing around 24/17ish at the time IIRC.

LINK TO HAND


Everyone in BBV said this was god awful, so lets here how bad it was and why I'm such a hee haw.


FWIW, here was thoughts on his range and reason for calling (FYI I'm not caring so much about defending the play as checking for incorrect thought process on my part)...

KK, JJ, TT, AK, AQ - I do not these are accurate hands to put into villains range. Even a 10% raiser is going to raise these hands instead of open limp. Since he was in the CO it's even less likely he was going to try to limp/reraise or something like that. Therefore I decided to exclude these from his possible holdings. I personally think that is a fair assumption, but if you guys think I am way off please let me know.


I thought was most likely to be limping with the standard stuff that type of player limps with, medium to small pocket pairs, suited connectors and semi-connectors, broadway or otherwise, etc.

So 22-99, whiffed low connectors, etc: Makes sense preflop, not postflop. Discounted.

KQ, QJ, QT, KJ, KT, JT, Q9: This range is the type of hand I thought the villain had.

Vs. Q9 straight, I'm toast.

Vs. The Two pair, I'm a 1.6:1 dog getting pot odds of 1.37:1. Not great, but could be worse.

Vs. The Pair + OESD I'm 2.3:1 Favorite with pot odds of 1.37:1.

So versus this range according to Pokerstove I have 47% equity in the pot.

A couple other things...

1. I really thought this was going to be KQ, or QJ, primarily because he shoved - it made me think he wanted to see both the turn and river and sure scare the hell out of AK. I don't often see 50/10ish players jam made hands in an unraised pot on the flop, usually they slowplay. I think it would be fair to say that on that kind of board a shove has a pretty reasonable chance of being representative of a draw. As it was, he simply outflopped me and fastplayed my ass.

2. I've given a pretty fair range to villain, but I think it would also be fair to account for any sort of Ace Overcard/Pair/Gutshot type hand like AT. The same thing goes for there being a non-zero chace of this being just a plain bluff. Sure, they are longshots, but the hand is on the edge as it is, so I don't think it's entirely fair to discount that.

3. I'd lost 800 bucks by this point and it was 5AM, so my thought process may have just been wishful thinking since I was stuck. However, given the circumstances I still think it is a REASONABLE play.

Is it an awesome play? No, it's not.

Would I have played it the same way if preflop had been a raise and me 3betting? No, I would not have, as adding KK, JJ, TT, AQ, and AK to a range would crush me.

Do I like to ask questions then answer them myself? Yes, I do.


Anyhow, what do you folks think? I know the call is marginal but I think calling it god awful or horrible is a bit of a stretch given the situation. Oh, and incase any of my math is off and I'm a complete idiot then that is unfortunate. At the time, I just ballparked it.

[BarryLyndon]

This is the longest analysis I have ever read for justifying calling all your money off with AA on a K 10 J board with two diamonds.

[Corpsebean]

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This is the longest analysis I have ever read for justifying calling all your money off with AA on a K 10 J board with two diamonds.

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Well I'm not sure I can trust the opinion of someone who can't count.

[wdead]

yo man check that flop. wtf does betting accomplish?

[EvanJC]

it gets drawing hands to shove over you?

kinda kidding, but i don't think ops play in this hand is THAT bad.

[Corpsebean]

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yo man check that flop. wtf does betting accomplish?

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With the intention of c/f?