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#11
02-02-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: $225 River 3 bet?
I thought trips were pretty likely and I didn't want him to fold. Definitely should have raised more but this is how it went.
River: (t300) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) <font color="red">Hero bets t120</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to t270</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t600</font>, MP1 calls t330 Results in gray below: <font color="#f7f7f7">Hero has Qd, Jc (a straight, Nine to King), chump has 9d6d </font> 
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#12
02-02-2007, 04:23 PM
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Re: $225 River 3 bet?
Just seems mathematically wrong to 3-bet, especially the amount you did.
Lets break it down as follows which seems pretty realistic 80% of time you are ahead 20% he is ahead of the 80% you are ahead he has a hand good enough hand to call your 3-bet 50% of the time. Then EV can be broken down as follows 1/2(330) 80% of time = +132 -1200 (20%)= -240. 20% you stand to lose your hole stack since if he has you beat considering stacks you will be commited to calling his 4-bet all-in. therefore this is net -EV. The only way to combat this is to bet more more, but by betting more the hands he calls with drop, although when he calls your + EV increases. Lets say forexample if you go-all in then of the 80% of times you have him beat he only calls 25% of time with worse hand then 1/4(1200)*.8=240 1200*.2=-240 so going all-in will be break even at best. All things considered if you are a good SNG player you should find a call here.
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#13
02-02-2007, 04:39 PM
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Re: $225 River 3 bet?
[ QUOTE ]
I thought trips were pretty likely and I didn't want him to fold. Definitely should have raised more but this is how it went. River: (t300) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) <font color="red">Hero bets t120</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to t270</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t600</font>, MP1 calls t330 Results in gray below: <font color="#f7f7f7">Hero has Qd, Jc (a straight, Nine to King), chump has 9d6d </font> [/ QUOTE ] dude this line is really bad. hes shoving on you with anything that beats you and enough hands you beat that youll have to call getting such a good price if he 4bets, but youre leaving tons of value on the table. you let him play really well. you should shove. hes NOT folding trips if you dont have a strong read that he will. and seriously, if 3betting is your plan, that river bet size really sucks.
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#14
02-02-2007, 06:06 PM
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Re: $225 River 3 bet?
[ QUOTE ]
you let him play really well. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Hero's play positively sang draw and villain let him try and make it by not betting the turn and then went ahead and raised on the river after the scare card comes. Villain shouldn't have lost this hand. He played it badly.
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#16
02-02-2007, 08:35 PM
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Re: $225 River 3 bet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you let him play really well. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Hero's play positively sang draw and villain let him try and make it by not betting the turn and then went ahead and raised on the river after the scare card comes. Villain shouldn't have lost this hand. He played it badly. [/ QUOTE ] what?
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#17
02-02-2007, 09:12 PM
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Re: $225 River 3 bet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] you let him play really well. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Hero's play positively sang draw and villain let him try and make it by not betting the turn and then went ahead and raised on the river after the scare card comes. Villain shouldn't have lost this hand. He played it badly. [/ QUOTE ] what? [/ QUOTE ]
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