uh I'm a fish 2/4 77 Blind steal hand.

[JJH3984]

Villian in this hand is 20/8/1.2 over 25 hands. his WTSD is like 25%, not that it matters.

In the last hand he c/r me in a raised pot with 87 when the board read AA8 and bet the turn and an 8 on the river. (QQ no good). So I'm gonna think he sees me as exploitable for some reason.

Anyway tear this mother apart:


Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.25BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>

[Grease]

Do you think he'll lay down a hand on the river? Or do you think you're raising for value?

I would probably just call his bet, because if he goes to 3-town, I'm not happy (and you probably puke in your mouth.)

What do you do if he 3-bets?

[BigBadBabar]

i would just call. looks like his flush came in or maybe he's betting a king.

[JojoDiego]

Surely the river raise can't be for value. What's he calling with that we beat?

It's gotta be to get him to fold a better hand. And I'm thinking that the number of better hands that he'll fold is not large. Maybe A-8, A-9, A-2, 10-9. (maybe that is a significant enough number?) He could also have an overpair, 2 pair, a set, maybe a straight (6-7) or, of course, the flush, and he's likely not folding those.

So, given that size pot, is it worth it to invest the extra bet to try to force him off the better hands?

[Bill C]

There's 3 OCs out there, plus 3 each to flush and str8. You face these with a mediocre pair. Maybe you are best, but I think I'd have just called. Interesting that he gave you the WA/WB move.

Curious: what did you think his river bet represented? Was there some meta-game consideration in your mind, perhaps related to your idea that he might think you "exploitable?"

bc

[JJH3984]

yeah. At the time I felt like he was b/fing a lot of the range that he would lead the river with. I felt like there was a chance he'd lay down an 8 or 9 or even a pair like TT, given that he likely saw me as tight passive at this time. I'm not too worried about getting 3banged cuz its an easy fold. I'm not folding so I thought I'd invest an extra bet and try to make him lay down a hand (I'm getting about 9-1 on the bluff). The thing is he didn't really play the hand like he had a flush draw, which i thought he'd be aggressive with at some point or a bigger hand like two pair (again he would have gotten aggressive on the flop or turn). I thought 8s and 9s made up a signifigant portion of his range.

Looking back on it, I doubt his folding range was as high as I felt it was though. He folded (I'm gonna go with JT), but I doubt he's laying down a pair very often in this spot.

In terms of meta-game: if this gets shown down, it'll probably make him think hard about taking shots at me. I also probably lose if it gets shown down.

[buriedbeds]

I'd call. In hands like this it feels like you're relying too much on how he reads you. The truth is, he very likely doesn't read you at all (because (1) you're playing low limit and it's likely he's a "just playing for fun" fish and (2) you've barely played any hands with him, so even if he is paying attention he should know enough to not put any credence in an opinion), and if in fact he DOES read you as tight/passive he might have assumed you were going to lay down to a river bet. Either way, you can't call a 3-bet and your raise is absolutely not going to get him to fold anything that you can't beat, imo.

-bb.

[Grease]

[ QUOTE ]
if this gets shown down, it'll probably make him think hard about taking shots at me. I also probably lose if it gets shown down.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will lose if this gets shown down. I think that he folds a hand that you beat very rarely, but will look you up with just about anything that beats you.

I don't have a problem with calling though. I would have done it in your situation.

[car ramrod]

I don't think this is a bad play, but I feel at 2/4, the odds of him folding a pair hu are not very good. His line looks like he doesn't want the river to get checked thru, meaning he probably has a pair. If you think he is fos, you better of just calling.

[DTsee]

AQs hearts? River is Scary as hell on this line...