Bullets at the Bellagio

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
the pot is big so I feel I should protect my hand in case it's good or in case I can draw out. So I make it five bets to hopefully drive out the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

FLOP: Given your description of the BB, your hand sux so much that I dont think its worth trying to protect with a 5bet. Although I do like the spirit of your play as far as the notion that in many situations it's important to protect your hand even when you feel you are a significant underdog to be best. When the pot gets large, having the best hand "sometimes" is usually enough reason to play aggressively and go into protection mode. However when the BB, whom you described as weak/tight coldcalls the flop check/raise in a very precarious position knowing that you could 3bet behind him, and then he caps the flop when it comes back to him, I dont think your hand will be good often enough here even in this very large pot to worry about protecting. So I prefer calling the flop 4bet.

TURN: As CDC said, if youre going to call a blank river, then you should bet/fold this turn. If you were intending to fold on a blank river then I like your turn play. I personally think the best play on the turn is to check it with the intentions of folding the river unless you improve to aces up or top set. The reason I say this is your only hope was that this guy was getting fancy with a combo flush draw, and that hope died on the turn so theres no reason in my mind to commit another bet to this pot UI.

RIVER: You have two choices on the river and calling is not one of them. If you think this guy will bet/fold 2pair or a set on the river then a bluff raise should atleast be considered. In general, the vast majority of poker players dont make this kind of fold. In fact most wouldnt even dare bet this river with a 2pair/set hand especially a weak/tight player. So folding the river is the clear best play in my mind.

[jfk]

No one has yet suggested that the BB could be playing AK this way. Not everyone auto caps AK, even against late position raisers. Since he flopped good and may not automatically put either of you on a set or AA (since he's holding an A).

Once he sees you two going nuts he may assume you're humping good draws and he decides to protect himself. Like you he may be looking to get to showdown cheap and/or planning to check raise the turn.

As the board played out, I'd fold the river too, but if a brick hit, I'd call.

I'm not saying AK is the most likely holding, but it fits the play, especially if the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is in his hand. His flop action can then be seen as a straight value play modified from a planned turn check raise.

[Jeffage]

I think it's possible he'd just call preflop with the AK. But he would likely play the flop differently, either reraising when SB checkraised or betting right into me with a plan to reraise. I don't think he would do the superman thing, coldcalling a checkraise and then four-betting when it comes back to him with only one pair. He could four-bet a huge draw on the flop after coldcalling once, but if he did, he got there. And I don't really see him doing that in the first place.

At the table, I didn't think there was much chance he had only one pair on the flop.

Jeff

[tongni]

Raise the river?

[Turning Stone Pro]

I haven't read all the responses yet, but I might have to call this river bet. Even if he is truly weak/tight/nitish as you describe, I think I have to put the 1 bet in on the end of this big pot.

The only reason I say this is because so many people will interpret you turn check as total weakness and/or a-no-spade in-your-hand-hand so that they have to fire at the end knowing that you know that the way they played the hand earlier (with real strength) there is no way you are gonna call without something extremely strong and that there is no way that turn and/or river didnt help him.

I'm not saying folding isnt correct, but when factoring in the pot odds and also gaining info from a relatively unknown opponent who played the hand in a reasonably unconventional manner, I personally would look him up.

TSP

[mikelow]

Just curious, what's a "Bell-regular?" If a brick came on the river, I would have called (albeit reluctantly). BB may
have a set, and bet the river figuring you didn't donk the turn because you don't have the spade ace.

[benwood]

I don't think that we could give you a 'cookbook'answer as to what the right play would be if he bet a blank river into you.It's close enough that you would have to be there & get a read.But I would be more inclined to call.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my first thought, too. If this guy is weak/tight, he may bet/fold a set here, and you could be taking a free card with the nfd on the turn. What is the pot at this point, 15 or 20BB? If he does have a set without a flush this board is going to make him want to puke.

[Jeffage]

Hey folks - typing this from AC. I don't think this guy bets the river without a strong flush. He doesn't seem the type to bet-fold a set here but does seem the type to always go for a turn checkraise after the flop action rather than bet-three bet. Ok, back to gambling.

Jeff