#1
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Pass up or accept the coin flip?
Curious who feels you need to gamble to win and who waits for the deckto hit them hard.
UB $200 tournament.oney bubble has just burst so everyone gets $256 for their $215. I'm in 6th place with 20K. Very good player (Leggggggy) pushes his last 7,800 from EP. I'm 2 off the button with 99. My read is that I'm probably a coin flip. I think he has a bigger pair just as often as he has a smaller pair, and the rest of the time he has overs. Blinds are 400/800 with 100 antes so there is 2200 in dead money in the pot too. Do you take the +EV play assuming my read is right? If I win the pot I will actually be the chip leader. |
#2
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
seems like a pretty good spot to get it in. I think he has a smaller pair more often than you give credit, and the dead money in the pot is enticing
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#3
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
Take it, holler. I would be surprised if he is shoving tighter than 66+/AJ+.
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.497% 50.78% 00.71% 506076108 7122864.00 { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ } Hand 1: 48.503% 47.79% 00.71% 476239092 7122864.00 { 99 } |
#4
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
david,
this is for sure a call, legggy is good enough to be pushing wide enough to make this a good call. there's really no reason that i can think of to avoid this +cEV spot. |
#5
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
I think this is a definite call considering you're a slight favorite to overs and that there is much more dead money in the pot with the higher antes.
I also think that with the high antes on UB a <10xBB push in EP is wider than you think. |
#6
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
Good spot to take a shot. If you are playing to win its time to get some chips.
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#7
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
def.
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#8
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
push
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#9
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Re: Pass up or accept the coin flip?
I've watched you play and quite apart from the straight EV considerations, which make this a pretty easy push, a big stack will give you a greater edge than it would an average player and this gives you the chance to remove a strong opponent.
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