When to surrendour the bluff

[MooreMoney19]

Playing ftp 3/6 nl villian is loose wouldn't quite call him a lag because of his lack of aggresiveness.
Limp, fold to Hero who raises to 22 on the BTN with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] BB calls limper folds

Flop:
2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks hero bets 38 BB Calls
Turn:
J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks hero bets 90 BB calls
River:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks Hero??

I know that king should look like a perfect card to bluff at, but after calling 2 bets of atleast 75% of the pot is it time to surrendour?

[Big_Jim]

Don't fire it every time, but definitely fire it a lot of the time.

EDIT: Remember, if he has a weak made hand, he probably puts you on AK.

[Teh1337zor]

I think he either has a set or a busted flush draw in this scenario. Slowplaying a set is feasible and everyone seems to have fallen in love with the play (I personally dont like it too much), but chances are he makes his move on the turn/bets river with a set. As for a flush draw, you said he was loose and loose players often chase especially on otherwise dry boards like that. The last hand I think you can put him on is A9, but again I feel he would bet the flop with top pair top kick as it is very vulnerable. Putting all this together, I feel there are 2 amounts to bet on the river either 160ish getting just the flush draw to fold (if you are confident thats what he has, if you make a smaller bet hell sense weakness and put you in a bind with a raise) the other is about 250 which I feel will get A9 and the flush draw to fold, all depends on previous action at the table his tendencies etc but I feel 3rd barrel is worth fireing.

[MooreMoney19]

I dont mind the second two bets, but why even make the bet that gets the flush draw to fold, if thats the case then shouldn't me A 10 high hold up??

[Teh1337zor]

great point completly overlooked that
what ended up happening?

[MooreMoney19]

I checked and he flipped up the 67 of diamonds. I guess a poorly played flush and straight draw. While this time he clearly missed his draw, i was wondering in your guys' experiance if this type of river is worth betting to defeat a weak made hand

[Teh1337zor]

Yeah unless you have a solid read I think a third barrel is a good play 3/4ths of the time.

[aejones]

yea answer to the title isnever. never surrender the bluff

[snakekilla88]

I love 3 barrels and this looks like a good time to fire!

[ogdundar]

Fire the 3rd with this nice river. Give up when river brings lover cards, as you beat a busted FD anyways, and probably won't fold mediocre/weak made hands.