Turn c/r bluff

[DirteAA]

haha...i had to double check but the villain in this hand posted it. i told him to fold, nbet.

[DanJ.]

lol link?

[Keyser.]

SPEWSPEW

The range that villain double-barrels with on this turn is very, very narrow and you just don't have enough FE against that range, and your line is not credible, and Barrin6 thinks it's a good play so it's obviously the opposite.

[Barrin6]

The only way you think this would be wrong is if you don't think villian will fold QQ or better which I highly think he will do based on the reads.

[DanJ.]

ye i also think he folds QQ or better, otherwise i wouldnt have done it.

[forshure]

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Villain stats are 22/17/3.4 over 1300

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Use your reads. He's folding QQ>. His UTG raise puts his range with TT-AA, AK,AQ,AJ,AT which he will all fold except JJ of course.

Play the player, don't play the cards.


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I think attempting to draw these conclusions from these numbers is simply a mistake that many people make. It will help you derive a range of possible hands, which you did, and you can then guess how he is going to act for each of the different hands in his range. OP stated that these hands were datamined and does not actually have any real reads about how villan plays. He does not list WTSD, which would be quite useful in figuring out if he is weak tight or if he is a calling station and whether he will push/fold AA KK here. Stating that he is folding QQ+ here based on his preflop stats and aggression factor is a poor conclusion to draw. I have seen people with different preflop stats play many different hands different ways. Some taggish people will never fold an overpair there and some will fold everytime, but preflop stats will not make this distinction that actual observations will. I think pt stats/reads are often overused and misapplied and people forget about actually seeing how someone plays postflop, rather then just numbers on how he plays preflop.

And as seen in the the thread on the other side of this hand, (when i looked at it) it was about 50/50 on push/call and most respondents prob play in a manner classified as TAG by PT.

[Keyser.]

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The only way you think this would be wrong is if you don't think villian will fold QQ or better which I highly think he will do based on the reads.

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I don't think he folds AA/KK hardly ever after putting in 1/4 of his stack against someone whose line isn't very credible. Mayyybe he folds QQ sometimes but still the play isn't +EV imo.

[cooter_mullet]

spew. hes getting 3:1 on the call against a line that makes little sense. you arent folding much at all here, and you have basically no equity vs anything that beats you. at least pull this with 2nd pair

[yundmi]

repping sets is expensive, and i don't think it works often enough unless the opponent really pegs you as a huge nit

[Scofield]

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and Barrin6 thinks it's a good play so it's obviously the opposite.

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QFT