99

[DrModern]

We don't say enough interesting things about preflop so let me present a scenario that I think should generate some worthwhile discussion.

You're playing at a very loose--meaning most hands feature 5 or 6 players to the flop, occasionally more--live low limit game. Players will call many bets preflop with all kinds of laughable holdings. All of the players are passive (both pre and post) and atrociously bad post (meaning they virtually never fold anything).

You're UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Raise or call? Why? How does your play change if you're in middle position with 2 limpers to you? How about if you're in late position with 4? Why?

Please don't just say what you would do but try to explain your reasons.

Edited to say: Also consider how differently you would play if you held TT or 88 and why you would be making those different plays?

[Gipper]

I frequently play in a live 3/6 game exactly like the hypothetical one you describe. I raise 99 UTG for value. Many players play any two cards, and some will play against a raise with any two suited cards or any face card. In addition, many players will call all the way to the river with a single overcard no matter what the pot odds or the board. It may increase your variance, but I think raising 99 UTG in these games in +EV. I raise TT UTG as well, but limp 88. 99 is my cut-off. I have no hard and fast reason to make the distinction at that point, but I don't think it matters too terribly much given how poorly everyone plays post-flop.

In addition to the mathematical edge this gives me, I believe it also gives me a psychological edge. Many of the players I regularly play against want to see the flop for free and become agitated when people raise pre-flop. After you raise, they will go into call down mode with any two cards in an attempt to beat you and "prove that you shouldn't be raising before you even see the flop." Although this can be frustrating when 73o hits the tripple gutshot to beat your pocket aces, I think it is very +EV to have people intentionally chasing you down with any two cards.

[DrModern]

[ QUOTE ]
I frequently play in a live 3/6 game exactly like the hypothetical one you describe. I raise 99 UTG for value. Many players play any two cards, and some will play against a raise with any two suited cards or any face card. In addition, many players will call all the way to the river with a single overcard no matter what the pot odds or the board. It may increase your variance, but I think raising 99 UTG in these games in +EV. I raise TT UTG as well, but limp 88. 99 is my cut-off. I have no hard and fast reason to make the distinction at that point, but I don't think it matters too terribly much given how poorly everyone plays post-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, all the things you stated are usually true at these games. Raising 99 UTG is clearly +EV, but is it superior to limping? The point of this thread is to give some weight to the why of this play. I too don't really have a hard and fast reason for my usual cutoff of TT for an EP raise, so I'm wondering how we can make this a little less arbitrary. Of course you'll beat the game with either play--your opponents suck--but does one line outperform the other in EV terms?

Also, what about the position question? Is your answer the same in MP? LP? the blinds?

[ QUOTE ]

In addition to the mathematical edge this gives me, I believe it also gives me a psychological edge. Many of the players I regularly play against want to see the flop for free and become agitated when people raise pre-flop. After you raise, they will go into call down mode with any two cards in an attempt to beat you and "prove that you shouldn't be raising before you even see the flop." Although this can be frustrating when 73o hits the tripple gutshot to beat your pocket aces, I think it is very +EV to have people intentionally chasing you down with any two cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, I agree.

[threads13]

I assume you are saying that they will cold call a lot PF.

Obviously, you can either raise or call UTG. Raising is good if you are expecting to get a couple of cold callers and the blinds. This gives you good value for your hand. This really gets the best of both worlds because 99 kind of in that area of good pair vs. set value.

I play it the same way in MP with a couple limpers for the same reasoning. I expect to get a pot with 5 players or so and I am getting the best of both wordls.

In late position with 4 limpers it is a raise and I am getting good set value on top of the strength of the hand.

TT makes these raises easier because it is a stronger hand. With 88 I would probably want to limp in EP and MP for set value. I would still go ahead and raise 4 limpers in LP.

[Point Blank]

UTG w 99, 88
i think it depends mostly on how the table reacts to a raise (will you still get many callers, or just a couple) - if you raise UTG with the mid pairs and a always seeing the flop 4 way, then I think it's best to limp and go for set value (SSSH values the hand best in multiway pots, or with 2 or 3) ... if you can raise and still get a number of people to call with garbage, then raise it up!

MP w 2 limpers
again ... depends on the people behind you (is there a crazy?) ... you already have two in (are you likely to get many callers ...with just one additional caller, this makes the hand harder to play)

LP w 4
raise might be alright ... 4 in and the blinds will always call (right?).

***
TT is a little strong than 99, so probably doesn't matter much (can go either way to mix up your game)

[Bona]

In the game you describe I will limp from UTG with all three hands and will call a raise or even 2 back. Same with MP and 2 limpers, and from LP with 4 limpers. I see no reason to raise it up even though it is arguably +EV to do so because I think the primary value of these hands in this game is set value and we are using implied odds there. I don't think we can expect to isolate anyone in this game: so, for me, set value is the deal. I check/fold the flop unimproved (unless there are no overcards on the board.

WARNING TO ALL NEW PLAYERS: I have no idea how to play poker and I may have just proved it!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

EDITED TO ADD: I was thinking about my statement about folding the flop UI. Obviously I wouldn't fold it if the pot was large enough to draw 23:1 or so. And I guess it sometimesccould be in this game. Same on the turn if the odds are there otherwise I fold it.

[DrModern]

I already answered this question in the OP but to restate:

people will cold-call your raise with all kinds of trash.

[Brain]

I raise 88+ in EP, although I can't remember a loose game like you describe in a while (been a while since I played live). This is usually for value and to try to help define the hands behind me too. It's usually the weaker players CCing and often folding to a flop bet, which is nice. I've been thinking about 88 and 99 lately too and I'm interested in some more of the answers.

[bozlax]

Meh. Whip out PokerStove and run equity sims of 99 against 4, 5 and 6 random hands, and you'll have your answer (since nobody folds postflop, 'stove is actually relevant for this preflop question).

Personally, 99+ is an always-raise, 77- is an always-limp, and 88 is about 3:1 limp. 88 is my cutoff because it's exactly in the middle.

[ckj]

If they call regardless if your action I raise, but if you get more callers if you limp, I will limp. TT is a raise no matter what, and 88 I am leaning more towards a limp.