Overpair Facing CRAI in Reraised Pot

[jk3a]

Villian is 37/14/1 through 70 hands.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $329.70
Hero: $1132.30
Button: $1471.85
SB: $554.50
BB: $67.10

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $14</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $48</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($102, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $80</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $281.7</font>, Hero

[restrikt]

Reads? Does villain 3-bet preflop with 1010 or better? Does he usually cbet with a made hand????

Without reads, I probably instacall this. I think we see a flush draw, 77-1010 often enough to make this a marginal call.

[jk3a]

anyone else?

[oyvindgee]

This should be a call for the reasons stated above.

[wdead]

This is a bigger overpair a lot. Sometimes its a smaller pair. It could also be a draw. However, villain is very passive, making me think this is a bigger overpair. I would prob fold vs a very passive villain and instacall vs an aggro

[swolfe]

yeah, with a passive villain, you're looking at AA/KK most of the time

[Hattifnatt]

I call, if he was deeper I lay it down.

[Grandezza]

Two ranges, one where he shoves combo draws, all pairs, overs +FD and one where his range is smaller:

Board: 6c 5c 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.631% 24.76% 02.87% 8333 967.50 { JcJd }
Hand 1: 72.369% 69.49% 02.87% 23392 967.50 { TT+, 66-55, 33 }

Board: 6c 5c 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.830% 51.13% 01.70% 43027 1429.50 { JcJd }
Hand 1: 47.170% 45.47% 01.70% 38264 1429.50 { 22+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, 86s, 75s+, 64s+, 54s }

Hero has to call $200 to win a $664 pot.

664*0.276=183
664*0.47=312

183x+312y=200

He has to be shoving the wide range, y, about 13% of the time for the call to be break even. Even though his AGF is 1 I think this is a pretty obvious call also considering that it's only over 70 hands.

Edit: Used 47% instead of 53% for calculating OP's EV against the wide range. This just makes the call even easier

[ReptileHouse]

It's only 70 hands. The post-flop aggro number should be taken with a grain of salt the size of Montana.

This being a reraised pot makes things a bit tougher since a lot of people fold drawy type hands pre-flop to the 3bet.

I probably call here and make a note about what he did this with either way it turns out. I think he has Pair+draw, draw, smaller overpair type stuff often enough for the call to be +EV, but it's close.