K high flopped flush, do i raise or let this guy keep betting down?

[joeyb]

just sat down at the table. My thoughts here were I was to let this guy just bet down since I figured if I raised that turn, he is going to fold his crap and bet the better hand. good spot for wa/wb, or should I be raising here?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.16 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.16 BB

[jba]

this is fine with me.

[Heisenb3rg]

I raise river because im a value monkey, and I like to be as agressive as possible. I think it's very close between raising and just calling.

Id rather make the mistake of being too agressive than too passive, because I get payed off more this way on my good hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jba]

heisenberg,

you're calling a raise I assume?

you need a 100% chance that he'll play this way and call the river with the Ts and Qs in order for it to be breakeven! this isn't that close imo, and in fact I believe we're a slight underdog here.

[milesdyson]

Well we hold the Ts so it's even worse since he would have an even lower flush with the 9s. I like the call down.

[jstill]

i dont think theres enough value in a raise, since we have the K and T and the Js down; theres pretty much only 2 hands he ll play this way and not fold to ur river raise :the Qs (which he mite fold to ur raise and mite check call the river with sometimes even though u just called the turn, neither of which is very likely vs most regular low limit players though) and the As which will always raise. I doubt he leads a 9 or worse on the turn and river and calls a raise very often unless hes a huge donkey.

If we could definitely raise fold and the fear of getting 3bet by a worse hand was 0 then i think raising is still very slightly -EV in this situation because of the frequencies I mentioned above skewing his likely holding more so to the better hand As than the worse hand Qs based on his actions in the hand. Im pretty sure noone is cool with raise folding to begin with however.

[Heisenb3rg]

Meh, I'll retract my statement..maybe it's a call, but I think it's pretty close.
If I had a read he was a solid/logical opponent, I think a raise is poor. But the majority of players I would not put under this category at 3/6.

I'd put an unknown on a spade here period. A little higher frequency given to a high spade. Or a complete bluff (but they're not calling the river raise)

I don't know why you assume this line must be taken with a high spade, or that he only calls a high spade to a river raise. I get river raises called by all sorts of junk, even on these boards. precisely the reason I rarely river raise bluff.
There are many opponents in these limits where It's correct to raise 7 high one card flushes on a lot of rivers, serious.

If you question this, are you advocating bluff raising 4 spade rivers a good % of the time? I doubt it. Hell if I was going to call down with a set here, why not stick in an extra bet on the river and get a small spade to fold? Why not? Because people don't fold enough on rivers.

The reason I'll retract my statement to raise is because my inititial thought was to raise/fold. But maybe that's not a great idea until we get a few more hands on the player. If he bluffs even 4% of the time in that situation we lose 0.5BB by folding.



I'd maybe want at least 30 hands on the guy to know he's not a crazy player before raising here. You would also have a general sense of how likely he is to pay off river raise.

[TheHip41]

nh