$10 20-table SnG late round decision

[nycplayer]

20 table SnG - Pays 18 places. 27 players left and hero is in 9th place. Avg stack is 10K. Largest stack is about 23K.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed)

CO (t9371)
Hero (t9316)
SB (t13294)
BB (t6850)
UTG (t21122)
MP1 (t8257)
MP2 (t4620)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t400, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t400, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t1550) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks,
BB checks,
UTG bets t800,
Hero ???

At this point, I have what I think is a very good draw, and I have been playing very conservatively (VP$IP=18) and I am in 9th place out of 27.
I feel a raise is appropriate - thoughts?

Hero raises to $2400 and SB pushes for t12869.
BB and UTG fold.
Hero ???

I am ahead (or tied with) of a lot of hands that might do this and doubling to 18K would let me cruise pretty easily to the final table, I think. On the other hand, if I fold, I can maybe last to the money and if I get lucky and double, then I'll be back in it.

Also, how does ICM come into play here? - I've never really tried to use it to analyze a decision with so many players left.

[Bakes]

-ICM has nothin to do w it, you can't use it on more than one table. just play yo game for first

-i would raise bigger or even push the flop

-call the all in as played

[Corrupt Rose]

I think the raise is fine, I call the push instantly. We aren't behind too much to a set.

[nycplayer]

Actually, when I ran it through pokerstove, I'm, behind to a set 60:40, but I can't give him too much credit for a set because I think a pair of 8s or 9s is gonna raise preflop when limped to in the SB.
I'm also behind to A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but I am slightly ahead (or way ahead) of everything else.

I made the call, villain had 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I didn't improve, so game over for me. But I thought the decision was good, and probably would've done the same if I could see his cards.

[registrar]

I'd just push. It's pretty transparent but it's a monster draw you've got here so I don't think that matters. Top pair will call a raise and then too often fold to a club on the turn, so get it in now.

[Easy17]

yeah, push flop but it wouldnt have made a difference in this hand - still good though.

[JARID]

nyc,

I'd probably raise a little more on the flop and be prepared to call a push. You're pretty much 50/50 with exactly AA/99 and his range is wider than that.

Also, you're thinking about this the wrong way. Passing up this opportunity to squeak into the money is weak. This is an opportunity to double through and not COAST to the final table, but OWN your way to the final table with a stack that allows you to be aggressive and continue to build.

[Valsuvious]

I was also going to say what Jarid just mentioned, having an 18k stack will enable you to have more manueverability near the bubble, but the low stack once you reach the ft will probably be closer to 15k, so it won't enable you to fold to the final table.

[nycplayer]

I know what you are saying, by "coast" I didn't mean "fold my way to" I just meant it would be pretty easy for me from that point.
I'm glad to hear from you guys that my instincts are getting better - calling with draws is one of those areas where I have a hard time knowing what to do sometimes.