TPTK facing huge overbet the turn

jaywks · #1 01-26-2007, 07:06 AM

UTG+1 is 27.4/11.3/3.5 over 62 hands. Haven't really tangled with him. I was just wondering what people thought of his turn shove and what range of cards you put him on. What do you think of my fold in this spot?

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($21, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, UTG+1 raises to $28, Hero calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($77, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 is all-in $179.75, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $179.75 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $77

Freelancer · #2 01-26-2007, 07:11 AM

snapcall?

And I'm not to worried about ranges, these overbet shoves are way to often flush draws/weaker kings...

jaywks · #3 01-26-2007, 07:17 AM

Would a weaker king open shove? Especially after I check the turn, wouldn't a weaker king put in a normal size bet? I would be more willing to call the open shove on the flop, but do you still think the flush draw would shove on the turn?

BobAllinSki · #4 01-26-2007, 07:24 AM

I think your beat, a draw might raise the flop that way but it doesnt overbluff the turn like that, if villain intended to bluff the turn he would raise a little more on the flop to convey a stronger hand and also make the pot that much sweeter when won, if someone raises an amount that leaves a pot bet left and then they make the pot bet all in it really looks like they wanted your whole stack from the first bet so it is more effective as a bluff than the min-bet overbet line and it is more profitable when it works (its also more effective from a meta game perspective because you can frequently put someone to a decision for all there chips using a fraction of your own).

The turn bet is interesting, its unlikely he is been over protective with AK as he just limped under the gun and a weaker hand would likely be very reluctant to bet so crazily. The most rational reason to make this kind of bet is when you make a strong hand that your opponent cant possibly believe you have which I cant see his bet here representing a hand that strong and unlikely. The most likely hand is QT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] which fits well with a UTG call, a flop min-raise & if he feels his hand is diguised the turn push. The only other rational hand is a combi-draw that needs to hit, prehaps 78[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s but these shouldnt really be seeing the flop from UTG, other combi draws should either have raised preflop (AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] & AT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) or have hit (QT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])

I think you are up against a stone cold bluff very rarely, the same hand occasionaly, a missplayed set often and QJ most of the time, a fold is in order.

BobAllinSki · #5 01-26-2007, 07:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
snapcall?

And I'm not to worried about ranges, these overbet shoves are way to often flush draws/weaker kings...

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course I'm assuming a rational villain, which can be a big -EV mistake to make

phillydilly · #6 01-26-2007, 09:24 AM

I probably fold.
Its weak/tight, but i hate playing for my stack with TPTK unless its on my terms, here, it definately isn't.

superflugan · #7 01-26-2007, 09:30 AM

big chance he has a combo draw here, like Q10s. if not i think 2 pair or set, i really think this is a fold.

Freelancer · #8 01-26-2007, 09:32 AM

Untill proven otherwise every villain I play is a donkey.

Donkeys minraise flop and overbet push on the turn with weaker Kings/draws (mostly draws actually). If you are beat here its probably by QT...

Also I play for my stack if I think I have the best hand, I don't have set terms wether I stack of with TPTK or not...

brettkc · #9 01-26-2007, 09:56 AM

Does anyone else 3 bet the flop and try and get it in? you have real good equity vs his range on the flop considering his limp preflop

spacebetween · #10 01-26-2007, 11:49 AM

Okayyyyyyy. So he minraises the flop with most likely a draw, you don't 3 bet. Now on the turn he goes allin with maybe a K, maybe a draw, maybe a monster. You don't know what to do. You HAVE to 3 bet the flop. Do you think a worst king or a combo draw, or even a draw is going anywhere? Calling the flop is retarded. What if the flush hits and he goes allin with KQ? What if he checks his draw on the turn? What some draw hits and he pushes another draw?