JJ 10/20 What do I do with this one?

[TimM]

MP3 is 16/8/1.9 CO is unknown.

Party Poker 10.00/20.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

River: (10.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB.

[SackUp]

wow this blows. unless this guy is a maniac, wtf are we beating that he caps unless you went bonkers with something like AQ or AJ.

Were you planning on c/r the turn until that nasty K came? I would consider c/r the flop as well.

I almost want to muck this turn, but dunno if I could do it against an unknown. Against a reasonable player I could MAYBE do it, but it would be damn hard even though with even decent hand reading.

[TimM]

I decided to just call down unless MP3 started raising. Looking at his numbers afterward, I found this CO to be 44/7 for the session. However he seemed to want to play back at me a lot, by 3-betting or floating, to the point where it was getting noticable.

Perhaps he saw a hand a couple of orbits earlier where I raised KJo first in from the HJ, and missed but bet every street. BB, another unknown, called down with his 32s, for a flopped pair of twos.

Anyway I don't know the reason, but I was happy when MP3 folded the turn.

[Dan BRIGHT]

id cr the flop and lead turn. After you c/r flop and lead turn QQ will fold.

Once you bet the turn which is a king, if you are raised, you can likely fold.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
id cr the flop and lead turn. After you c/r flop and lead turn QQ will fold.

Once you bet the turn which is a king, if you are raised, you can likely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf are you thinking? This is closer to a flop check/fold than it is a flop check/raise. This should be played as a way ahead/way behind situation but in fact Hero is very likely way way way behind.

[TimM]

Yes, I figured if he did have QQ I was not going to be able to do any better than call, call, call.

[GoodOL]

I think your line was fine. This player is a complete unknown. Some players cap with a bunch of hands in position. So, you call down because you don't have the information needed to fold. Also, you don't have the info to play aggressively. Your line also gives you information.

[TimM]

Anyway, he shows TT and MHIG. I did some pokerstoving, and my equity was actually fairly high. And it's funny how my equity doesn't change all that much when I add the turn card, or add TT and AKo to the capper's range.


Board: As Kd Jd

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.7084 % 39.33% 00.37% { JcJs }
Hand 2: 14.9124 % 14.30% 00.61% { 77+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 45.3792 % 44.77% 00.61% { JJ+, AKs }

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Board: As Kd Jd Kc

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.8401 % 37.84% 00.00% { JcJs }
Hand 2: 16.5695 % 16.28% 00.29% { 77+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 45.5904 % 45.30% 00.29% { JJ+, AKs }

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Board: As Kd Jd Kc

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.8203 % 39.82% 00.00% { JcJs }
Hand 2: 17.4483 % 16.68% 00.77% { 77+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 42.7314 % 41.96% 00.77% { TT+, AKs, AKo }