Ultimate Fight Night 8: 1/25/07 - Plus UFC 67 early discussion

[Performify]

question is will they move lines on you over the phone?

most likely

especially if you demonstrate you're a winning player.

you have to call up to make your bet, they see a note in your file, hold for this guy, guy pauses thirty seconds and says the -220 line you wanted to bet is now -250.

still, worth a shot. you'll most certainly get in one round of 5k-10k per hit bets before they cut you, if they cut you.

edit: have not experienced this at Olympic. But elsewhere, yes...

[rush66]

Trix, I also talked to olympic about this same thing. If you call their High Rollers line, they will supposedly take just about any bets until you crush them real hard. So you may want to wait until UFC 67. I am planning I laying a grand tomorrow on a parlay. I can let you know how that works out if you want.

[Performify]

Back with a quick round of thoughts on UFN:8 and a review of the line movements.

I’ll just run through each fight in the same order from my picks post from UFCjunkie.com

Enjoy the fights tonight, and best of luck to everyone making wagers or predictions.
Anyone else want to weigh in with thoughts or predictions?

Sean Salmon (+500) vs Rashad Evans (-625)
Line is holding steady, which isn’t unexpected. With no movement, original analysis stands.

Jake O’Brien (+360) vs Heath Herring (-430)
The Herring line has been bet up quite a bit from the opener of (-330) and where CRIS opened it at (-350). I’d recommend only a play to win a half-unit on the other side of (-400) as most of the value has been bet out.

Spencer Fisher vs Hermes Franca
As predicted, this line is still off on all the major books that I’ve seen. With the injury rumors I’d stay away if it comes back. Fisher could press to KO Franca sooner if he really is hurt bad, and at the same time Franca could exploit the injury. Too many unknowns for me.

Dean Lister (+200) vs Nate Marquardt (-240)
Actually a bit better odds than I got at Lister (+190). Not enough to recommend a stronger play though.

Chad Reiner (+320) vs Josh Burkman (-380)
Also a slight move back towards the favorite, but this line opened around Reiner (+355) so we’re just seeing it equalize a bit. No real changes to the recommendation. If it climbs back to (+350) or better increase to risking .25 units.

Ed Herman (-515) vs. Chris Price (+415)
Obviously the news that Price was 7 pounds overweight for the fight was not good for us, I’m definitely not happy with my prediction now, but that’s a risk you take looking for early value instead of waiting for weighins. Despite the more attractive line on Price, I’d probably stay away now entirely. There’s no value in Herman at the higher odds in my opinion, and at the same time Price has demonstrated a lack of focus that I can’t recommend backing. If you followed my previous pick you’re only in for .15 units on Price so we’re not significantly exposed enough to warrant any reaction to the bad news and the line shift.

Clay Guida (-130) vs. Din Thomas (+110)
A minor 5c move as the side we’re on gets bet up a bit. Not enough to warrant changing the play.

Ross Pointon (+350) vs. Rich Clementi (-420)
Another relativiely minor move on the side we’re on. Also not enough to impact the play. I’d drop to wagering to win .75 units at -440 or higher and to win .5 units at -475 or higher but I doubt this moves significantly more. I think this is still a pretty big blowout by Clementi.





Also, updated the title of the OP to reflect that this thread is more about UFN:8 now.

[InfectorGadget]

Where are these odds from? Are there any sites like betbrain.com which compare odds for MMA fights?

[Performify]

Those are all from BetCRIS at the time of the post.

[rush66]

Update on thegreek. They told me 2 days ago that Parlays would be available for ufc fights. However, I have just been informed that they are not allowing these parlays.

Any word on what time the undercard fights are going to start. I am going to do a manual parlay since they are being liars.

[JasonK]

First fight is scheduled for 5:30.

[Aicirt]

Bodog posted the following line:

Hermes Franca -250
Spencer Fischer +170

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
Bodog posted the following line:

Hermes Franca -250
Spencer Fischer +170

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree with Performify, Fischers health is too big of a unknown. From the best reports I've read...he injured his miniscus and had some trouble cutting an extremely large amount of weight. I've heard nothing definitive about his ACL being injured. Still, I would stay away from heavy action on that bet. If Fischer were COMPLETELY healthy I'd slam 5u down on that line. But as it is now, I wouldn't bet more than .5u and I'd consider it more of an action bet. GL thouhg

[rush66]

Is sherdog going to have one of those follow along live update pages? If so, has anyone seen it.