river value bet decision

sl4v3 · #1 01-24-2007, 04:30 AM

Just a few hands with villains. Both seem reasonable. Haven't seen them do anything tricky.

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8SB, 4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8BB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB calls, BB calls.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (11BB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets (planning to fold to a raise)

inferno · #2 01-24-2007, 05:07 AM

folding is bad

sl4v3 · #3 01-24-2007, 05:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
folding is bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you put the options in order of best-ness:

check
bet/call
bet/fold

Wolfram · #4 01-24-2007, 07:01 AM

bet/call > check >>>>>>> bet/fold.

You're obviously afraid either one of them has a 4 or 5. But if you look at the action this seems extremely improbable.

SB bet the flop, indicating he had something to bet. This could be top pair, a small pocket pair, flush draw, straight draw or combo draw. BB's call means nothing special, could be anything really (lone ace maybe).

The 5 pairs on the turn and SB checks. Think about that for a second. If he had A5 or any 5, he would not check the flop, because it's very coordinated with multiple flush and straight draws. Ok, he might be getting tricky, but he would certainly check/raise. BB also check calls, and would certainly check/raise both u and the SB if he has trip 5's.

River pairs the middle pair and they both check. Right now the only hand I'm afraid of is SB holding A4 for the flopped middlepair + gutshot. BB most likely would not check behind a 4 because he'll want value for his boat. We need to bet this river for value. You will be called by other pockets and probably also by A-hi.

We are beating a huge part of their combined range. If we get raised, we can't fold because a pocket overpair might think it's good here or somebody could be taking a shot at this big pot and we're certainly good more than 8% of the time.

mvoss · #5 01-24-2007, 08:30 AM

The value bet is good, the raise will be A-high or a lower PP than yours often enough to justify a call.