Online Poker 2006 = Daytrading Stocks 1999

[AbreuTime]

[ QUOTE ]
And for those who believe that "a few thousand" made a difference in my business... Maybe you should consider that I have enough class not to boast about my actual winnings nor my business on an anonymous web page. In a few years you will see that I am right. Hopefully, like so many others before you, you won't have given back everything you've won (and more) chasing a market which just won't come back to you.

Only the strongest survive.

M

[/ QUOTE ]
Coach me at life, oh brilliant one.

Edit: I feel very fortunate that you have shared your brilliant insights about the future state of poker, and your analogy was quite fitting. As a current poker player, I will reevaluate my life. Thanks again for your insights, and good luck to you in your other business endeavors.

PS. I'm sorry you haven't been able to beat the games recently.

[excession]

Any evidence that they are in breach of their obligations and have effectively emptied independent trust accounts?
No, though not.

please do not feed the trolls

[puckle]

OP is entitled to his opinion, though it must be said that it is only valid from a very narrow perspective. He fails to account for;

1. The geographically segmented nature of the online poker boom (i.e. presently all but dead in the U.S., still booming in Europe and Australia, the prospect of huge new markets in Asia)

2. The perennial attraction of sports/hobby viewing as a recreational activity. His prediction about the future media coverage of poker seems skewed towards the mainstream media and appears to ignore the growing popularity of "alternative" media outlets that satisfy a particular niche. For example, as an Australian, I watch High Stakes Poker (which is not available here via normal channels) on YouTube and I followed the Aussie Millions, which received only superficial coverage in the local media, via the live blog on Poker Works. The OP makes no attempt to examine the complex relationship between definitions of "popularity", different types of media coverage, spectatator participation and, finally, active participation in a sport/hobby.

Geddit?????

Oh, and niche doesn't necessarily mean small.

Typical of a lot of posts, the OP is a borderline troll post because the OP's subsequent replies demonstrate an inability to recognise and correct the gross deficiencies in the OP. His just digs himself in by trying to defend a laughably superficial view of a complex subject.

To be fair, however, the OP does demonstrate the intelligence to advance a useful wealth creation strategy; pick an emerging trend, pump it while it is flush with easy/uneducated money, move on, rinse, repeat.


Regards,
puckle.

[5thStreetHog]

Another useless im quitting that means you should too post.Great,no one caressss goodbye!!!

[BiCuriousGeorge]

OP,

we all have poker tracker. we all have PA Hud. we are all going to know if the games are ruined. there are plenty of loose passive dummies at my 5/10 6 max tables right now, and there are pleny of overagressive nerdarios too.

we are smarter than you. we will be ok.

[JohnnyHumongous]

Why do you guys even bother responding to these troll posts by this guy and Tuff Fish? Not one player who made any sort of real money in this game (and would know a lot better the future prospects of this business) is saying these things, only marginal players who couldn't really hack it even when times were good. Ever heard of the personality trait of projection? People often put their own experiences and conclusions on other people, forgetting that they do not have a monopoly on experience and point of view.

These marginal players are the first to be tossed aside as the industry changes (which all industries inevitably do as time goes by). They envy other, younger players for whom success has come easily. They turn to these players and shout, "You're next! You guys are in big trouble! I'm just a recreational guy so I won't miss it, but you serious players are SOL!" You can feel the sour grapes in their tone, as if they are saying, "You guys had your time but now you're gonna fall back down to my level mwahaha!" The fact is industries change. Resourceful, skillful poker players will adapt and survive, just like what happens in any market. Only the inflexible dinosaurs who pine for the good ol' days get left behind.

[Bogglor]

The only valid avenue of comparison between Online Poker 2006 and Daytrading Stocks 1999 is that the UIGEA either hinders or cripples the ability of the small time poker player in the same way that the Pattern Day Trader rule did for Daytraders with less than 25,000 in their account. Basically, the requirement of needing 25k made it effectively impossible for the small time guy to day trade in the way they were accustomed, forcing them to either change their style of trading or exit the market. And for others who had not yet begun to trade, it served as a barrier of entry.

That's basically what the UIEGA is doing: making it so difficult for current players to move money around such that they might exit the "market" of gambling, and serving as a barrier of entry for those that want to play but find it impossible to deposit/wanna stay on the right side of the law/etc etc etc.

The rest of his post is just histrionics.

[durkahdurkah]

OP may be a douchebag, and he may be a troll, but he is definitely not 100% wrong in his assessments. Of course, he is also not 100% right. But who is?

Will this be the end of online poker? Of course not, there will always be players worse than us (us definied as profitable players) to feed off of, much like the tech bubble bursting in 99-00 was not the end of market investing and day-trading. But the plain truth is this: Investing became much less lucrative after the tech collapse, and many people who were able to turn gross profits during the late 90's were no longer able to get nearly the same returns afterward. This led to a marked decrease in the more marginally-talented day-traders; these same folks went back to their jobs in Finance/Accounting/whereever in order to get that solid scheduled paycheck.

Compare this to the likely scenario we will face in online poker in the coming months. There are a large number of marginal winners out there who, when the pool of fish is reduced, will struggle to beat the rake now and in the near future. These players would be better served either going back to their jobs or focusing more on academics (depending on what stage of life they are in), as this will inevitably be the most profitable path for them to take.

There are definitely parallels to be explored when talking about the similarities in effect of the PDT Act of 1999 and the UIGEA of 2006, particularly in terms of barrier-to-entry. The small-time investors were hurt terribly by the PDT Act of 99, as many of them could no longer enter the market unless they were willing to take on an unacceptable amount of risk, thus shutting the small time "casual" investor out of the market.

The UIGEA effectively does the same thing. Those players who want to fund their accounts in order to beat the game and make a living will still be able to do so, they will just have to assume greater risk to do so. This risk, while important, does not serve as nearly the deterrent as these new regs deter the small-time casual player from depositing. A significant portion (not all) of these people will not go through the hassle to set up an account with an e-wallet (and subsequently a poker site) where they have a significant risk of any/all of:

a) fraud
b) performing illegal activities (yes this matters to some people)
c) risk of illiquidity of poker sites/e-wallets in the event of a US shutdown

So, is online poker going anywhere? No, not for the determined. But it will certainly be much less lucrative due to the loss of those that are not quite so determined as we are. This has been stated many times before on this board, so I know this isn't an original idea, but it does bear repeating, because it is the truth. Losing players need to be motivated in order to deposit their money and donate to the winning players. They need some return. Obviously because they are losing players, their motivation is not turning a profit, even though the thrill of doing so is a motivational factor, but they are motivated by two things: fun and convenience. Poker is a game, it's SUPPOSED to be fun, and online poker made it easy and accessible to those players where going to a casino is not a convenient option (like where I live). The latest actions taken by the US gov't are making a lot of people question whether or not it's worth it to deposit a small amount onto a poker site just for that fun and convenience. This is the true problem.

BTW, change OP's wording a bit: where he says "online poker", change it to say "online poker from within the US". It makes a bunch more sense, and isn't quite as Amero-centric.

I don't like that this was posted, since there are a number of lurkers to this forum that are looking here to see what other deposit methods they can use, and are bombarded by doomsday "ZOMG THE SKIES ARE FALLING" threads, but to say that the OP is FOS is very naive. We need to keep positive now more than ever, as the US gov't is trying to take something valuable away from us, whether that be our primary source of income, our secondary source of income, or just an avenue for us to get some frustrations out and have some damn fun. Threads like this do not help us and others to stay positive, and I suppose that is why OP is getting flamed so much. But, instead of flaming, try and figure out ways that we can fight this so we can keep our game alive and kicking.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming. Feel free to flame away.

[Mathemagician]

durkah, that was a much more effective expression of my thoughts than I was able to muster. Best of luck to all!

M