AK on an AQQ board

[jomatty]

party poker 33 + rebuys tourny
i have slightly above average chips with around 12k
both opponents have around 9k (average chips)
blinds are 150-300
UTG limps and i raise from the cutoff to 1200. the bb calls and utg calls.
pot 3750
flop is AQQr and the BB check and UTG bets 2500
what is my action
(if i had it to do over again i would have made a larger preflop raise but im more interested in the flop action)
ty
matty

[rms39]

I've thought about this one for a little while.

Basically, you have plenty of chips if you let this one go. If you call and he has the queen, he's going to put all of his chips in sometime during the rest of the hand, so you're essentially calling an all-in (if he has the Q) and losing 9k. If he only has the ace or another pair, he'll likely fold to a reraise over the top. So for that reason, I think reraising isn't a good option (If he has the Q, you lose a lot of chips, and if he doesn't, you win only a small fraction of what you would lose). Just calling might get him to push with a hand like AJ after the turn (trying to force you out) but it's likely he'll check it to you. So if you call, you can't lay it down on the turn either since it's so likely he'd bet big with any ace (if he did it on the flop).

So it's just a probability question. He could either have a smaller ace, have the queen, or have some other pair or hand that missed the flop. If he completely missed the flop, he'll probalby muck after you call or raise (he'll know you'll call an all-in), so you won't win all that much. If he has a lower ace, he'll probably push, and you'll make a big pot. Obviously if you have the Q, you're tourney life is devestated. Basically, given what he did preflop, I'd think its pretty likely he could have a hand like KQ or QJs here (yeah its a loose call preflop, but not unreasonable). I'd muck here if I had no read on him.

If I saw that this guy made moves on pots before, or has gotten called out on a pretty big bluff, I call. Also, if my table image is really weak (say you've laid down after the flop more than once after making a preflop raise) then I might call too.

RJ

[JSchnett]

i raise the same pf and i push the flop

[rms39]

I hate a push. You lose any chance of a weaker hand giving you more chips after the turn with a steal attempt, and probably scare AJ out of making a bet/call after seeing another card. You win less, and still lose an all in if he does have the Q.

Now i'm not saying you're not committing yourself to calling an all-in (you will), you're just giving a worse hand a reason to put all his chips in.

[jomatty]

my table image if anything is of someone who calls down loosely. i had just recently made a very tough call with a weak ace and caught someone bluffing who then berated me for like 15 minutes. that was part of my dilema , i did not think this player (who is good,observant,but aggressive) would try and bluff me.
matty

[rms39]

That pretty much answers your own question then I think. If your read was that he wouldn't try to bluff you and he thinks you'd call this with an ace, then that bluff makes sense if he has the Q. You've shown that you'll call with a not-so-great hand if the bet looks like a bluff, and this one sort of does. He's probably got the queen, and if he doesnt you only lost 1200. It's a lot better than misreading him and being way below average when you call a push after the river.

[jomatty]

thats the answer i came to as well and i folded. i felt especially clever when the utg player immediately cr all in. i felt less clever however when they both had smaller aces and i would have been the chip leader. oh well i still think its close so you cant get em all right.
matty

[rms39]

Oh well. Better safe than sorry. If you were desperate and low in chips, you'd obviously have called.