#1
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Final Table Decision.
Recently i made a final table at the $100+$15 Freezeout at the WinStar casino in Oklahoma.
This particular hand im in the big blind I'm chipleader with about t80,000 with four people left after doubling up through the Villain a couple of hands before this. UTG has about t40,000, villain has about t27,000, with t3,000/t6,000 blinds and a t400 ante. utg raises to t15,000, almost half his stack, and SB (villain) goes all-in. I look down at A8o. I played before with utg and he is the type to limp-raise, overplay 2 broadways, etc. although i feel that he has a hand like KJ or QT, I'm pretty sure he's getting it in and I dont really want to race. I think SB is just trying to resteal. He has been playing fairly loose, even for the fast structure, and had earlier put in a third raise w/ KQs preflop. I think he has a decent hand but is trying to isolate. I thought I was getting decent pot odds to call even if utg went over the top, But i thought it was a toss-up between calling/raising and folding. What would you do? I will post results later. |
#2
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Re: Final Table Decision.
Very easy fold.
SB has no folding equity and even when players, even bad ones, put in 35+% of their stack UTG their bet should be respected (obviously UTG should be pushing an enormous range of hands in this spot and he should never be raising anything to 15k but that is not the point of this discussion.) Best case scenario is that you are against 77 and KJ, worst case is that you are against 99 and AQ. I think the latter is much more likely than the former |
#3
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Re: Final Table Decision.
im folding this all the time.
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#4
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Re: Final Table Decision.
Toss it instantly
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#5
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Re: Final Table Decision.
I put them both on KQ and call.
Did I guess their hands right? |
#6
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Re: Final Table Decision.
lsu,
Fold. SB has 27k in chips and just came over all-in over the top of a guy who raised to 15k which represented 37% of his stack. This is not a "re-steal". No way utg villian folds for the extra 12k. You could be dominated by one or both guys, or drawing very slim. Also, you're making a very common mistake. You're putting utg on the range of hands that is simply most favorable for your hand. You cant just say "i put him on a KJ, QT type hand" because those are the hands that work out best for A8o. While that may have been what he had here, would he not do the same with AT-AQ, 99-TT, KK? Yea, probably. So while QT and KJ may be part or his range, you cant just ignore the other dozen or so hands he would play the same way. Make sense? |
#7
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Re: Final Table Decision.
The second player cant be restealing in the spot unless both of them are terrible because the first guy should never fold to a raise of that size no matter his holdings.
I would guess mathematically its probably not aweful because of the dead money but i think your analysis of the hand is fairly off. Also, if UTG had been shoving before this makes it even more of an instafold. But the main problem with A8 is you are alot more likely to be dominated than they are. |
#8
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Re: Final Table Decision.
thanks for all of the input. Many of you said a lot of what i was thinking myself, I put them on wide ranges but then realized that although they were possible and even likely that it just didnt add up to me.
I folded. UTG showed 66, SB showed 68o, rivered a straight which i would have chopped with him and eliminated the other guy. We decided to chop 4 ways a couple hands later $1310 each. I am not trying to be results oriented b/c i would have hit a straight, i was just wondering if the odds were right to call, i thought they were borderline but there was too high of a chance i was dominated. Anymore input is appreciated. |
#9
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Re: Final Table Decision.
pretty badly play by the SB unless he actually did have fold equity against this particular opponant.
All the stacks seem ridiculously shallow. |
#10
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Re: Final Table Decision.
yea, thats why we ended up chopping. Blinds got too big for the stacks.
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