1/2 6max, betting when you think you're losing

[Magic_Man]

1/2 6max, online vs. unknown villain. Hero is SB with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Villain raises UTG. 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB folds, villain calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets, villain calls.

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets, villain calls.

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets...

Standard, or stupid?

[GMFlash01]

This is a quick reply, but I would rather c/c. Worse hands are folding so you aren't gaining anything with this bet, and only losing when you get called. I would check and hope a worse hand bluffs back at me.

[lightw1thoutheat]

i almost never see people folding a hand that beats you here. hes in call down mode.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
Worse hands are folding so you aren't gaining anything with this bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Plz state the worse hands you think he is peeling that flop and that turn with, AND that he will be folding. Personally I see A:c.T:c: as the only one.

My point us that there is few worse hands he would be calling with AND few worse hands he will be betting with. So I c/f. By bayesian updating: If he is in this hand so far he has a better hand, so I fold.

[bung]

Any reads?

You're ahead of AT, FD picked up on the turn, JT. You're behind Kx, and Qx. But most Ks (and some Qs) would've most likely raised you on the flop, and most definitely on the turn. KQ would slowplay. I think you just might be good here.

I'd B/F river.

[Magic_Man]

The point of the post is that if I'm going to c/c, betting out has to be better. My opponent's most likely holdings, in order of likelihood, are:

Some kind of Q, most likely JQ or AQ
Something like JJ, 99, 88
AT, AJ
Possibly a K, but less likely.

I feel fine about bet/folding, because he is almost never bluff-raising the river. If he has gotten this far w/ 99,88 (and the unlikely TT), then he is calling the river anyway. He may even call w/ AJ, although that's unlikely. Also, if he has a Q, he will just call the river, but will bet if I check, and he will NOT bet the 99,88, etc. hands. I don't feel at all confident enough to c/f the river, so since I'm planning on calling a bet, I am less of a dog if I bet out instead. I gain a bet the times that he has 99,88, and I lose a bet if he specifically has JJ. With all other hands the outcome is the same.

~M^2

Edit: The main idea was that when I bet, I was almost positive my opponent held a Q, but not sure enough to fold to a bet. I was also aware that he would possibly play a medium pair the same way. So even though I was almost sure to be losing, I bet anyway to gain a bet the small percentage of the time that he held a lower pair. Is my analysis ok here?

[sharpie]

I like your analysis and the way you played this. I don't feel comfortable check/folding against an unknown either.

[jstill]

im not sure whats right exactly check/fold, ck call or bet fold but i think when u came to the conclusion of bet fold u left out a couple of things worth thinking about.

the range of worse hands that will bet does include hands like JT J9 or random peeling hands that pick up a bdfd. I also think some percentage of the time, maybe up to 20%, those worse PP hands find a river fold when a tight player fires again on the river (altho u are probably an unknown to him as well).

u also didnt really examine check fold as an option which in some cases is a better option than the other two obviously. Its tough to put him on an exact range on the turn and what to discount ( a K heavily id say).

but if u make it something like Qx 55-JJ AJ AT JT then strongly discounted some designated number of combos for bdfds, J9 and Kx ect, you have to figure out how many worse hands are likely to bet if u ck, and how many worse hands are likely call if u bet.

Thats pretty tough to decipher, i think, exactly which is best particular with no read on villain. We're kinda forced to use a bit of intuition on how much to discount what), but if it doesnt seem like there are enough of either to make those lines profitable ck folding is best.

against a bluff happy loose opponent who i think will call with a lot of weak hands on the turn vs me, and even will vb some worse PPs some % of the time thinking Id just bet a Q, I like ck call better.

Against a loose passive i guess i just bet and probably ck fold against the most honest nitty of players.