Predictions from Here?

[shark6]

What are your predictions regarding how the future of internet poker will evolve from here?

Here is a link to my previous predictions back in October:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post7524466

(Thread reposted here with additional commentary)

This is what I think will happen:

Oct ’06: Party and Stars stop taking US bets. <-- Correct call on Party. Missed on Stars because many privately held sites forged ahead.

Nov '06: Dems take control of Senate and possibly the House. They also increase control on the state level. <-- Correct call on all accounts

Jan ’07: Fed gives ultimatum to remaining gambling sites, banks, and third party money transfer centers to cease and desist or face large fines. Most sites comply by stop taking bets from the US, the rest are busted. <-- Still evolving, but this looks like a correct call on third party electronic money transfer centers. And, I still think it is possible that most sites will stop taking US bets by the end of the month. Don’t confuse the industry line of, “looking into alternative funding sources” with what is actually going on behind the scenes, which is an industry “looking into withdrawing from the US market”.

Feb '07: US enters recession

May '07: Declining state and Federal tax revenue becomes noticeable. Lots of talk about eliminating "Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy” and increasing taxes.

Jul '07: The large Vegas casinos see more losses and declining profits. More consolidation in the industry. The elimination of online gambling isn’t as good for them as they might have expected.

Nov '07: Another election about what to do about the “lack of money for schools and roads.” Dems further increase control at the state level.

Dec '07: Debate begins about how to fill budget gaps, especially on the state level. The Dems now control many state Governments. The debate over state sanctioned online gambling begins. The Dems say the money the state receives will "only be used for roads and schools" and there will be plenty of "money to help those with addiction to gambling problems". The Vegas casinos poor millions into lobbyists and campaign coffers to push through online gambling bills in several states.

Feb '08: Several states legalize online gambling. The first online operations go to the Vegas casinos and Indian tribes, not the overseas operates because the US companies are deemed more "safe" and capable of "oversight" by the Dems and the oversears operators who would pay even more than the 49% of revenue that the US casinos will have to pay (The state will take 49% of revenue just like it does with lotteries). It will start with states that already have lots of gambling revenue like NV, LA and NJ as well as states hit hardest in terms of state tax revenue with Democratic control and lots of Indian or state sanctioned casinos like MI, IL, WI, MN. With legalization, the Dems get more taxes to spend on their socialist programs without having to raise tax on the middle class, and the Vegas casinos get profits. The new sites rake 10% of pots just like in most B&M's because there is now little to no competition. The games are tight and passive, and unbeatable to almost unbeatable because of the rake. There is no rakeback and few bonuses offered.

Jun '08: As more states legalize and reap millions in revenue, a push starts to legalize this at the Federal level. Party and Stars dump millions into the coffers of pro gambling politicians.

Aug '08: Online gambling legalized at the Federal level. Party, Stars and any online site that survived the “dark ages” open office in the US and accept US players. The rake is increase to 10% of all pots regardless of limit to pay the US Governments new cut. The games improve slightly, but by this time poker has been out of the limelight for so long that not enough bad players keep depositing to keep the sharks happy. Competition begins to increase allowing some form of rakeback or VIP player bonuses and more bonuses.

[beardedwhale]

bbv

[dippydoo]

So you made that long post just to say "I told you so"?

LAME

[William]

Jan '07: You get banned.

[Botchman]

Rake is 10% of pot regardless of limit with no cap???? Are you crazy there will be no money to be won. Peoples stacks will be gone in minutes

[Botchman]

[ QUOTE ]
Jan '07: You get banned.

[/ QUOTE ]
ROFLMAO