10$/180. Tough river decision

xoom · #1 01-17-2007, 01:59 PM

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t25/t50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2185
UTG+1: t4780
Hero: t2840
MP2: t2625
CO: t1200
Button: t3370
SB: t2030
BB: t2240

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls t50 (pot was t75), UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to t150, 5 folds, UTG calls t100 (pot was t275).

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t375, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t225, UTG calls t225 (pot was t600).

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t825, 2 players)
UTG bets t50, Hero calls t50 (pot was t875).

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t925, 2 players)
UTG is all-in t1760, Hero?

No reads.

TheBlueMonster · #2 01-17-2007, 02:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is all-in t1760, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]
calls
Your flop bet (his possible thinking: you C-bet the flop) He min-bet on the turn and you just called (his thinking: you probably don't have a Q)
The river is another Q and he pushes (his thinking: since he didn't raise my stupid turn min-bet on the turn he probably doesn't have a Q....or....I have trip Qs so I will try to get called)

J.A.K. · #3 01-17-2007, 02:19 PM

I don't know if 77-88 play the turn this way and he didn't limp/call with Q7,Q8,Q5 preflop. AQ raises the flop (I think). I call expecting to see KQ-QTs.

AragornX151 · #4 01-17-2007, 02:48 PM

Call. That's an odd way to play a set of 7's or 8's, though plausible. More likely, he has QK or maybe a smaller flush formed from a straight draw (9T of spades?). Regardless, that bet screams to me, "CONFIDENCE! YOU BETTER NOT CALL!" With a boat, he sprung to life with way too large a bet for most players; even weak ones don't usually just shove a boat there with so little money in the pot. Easy call.

AragornX151 · #5 01-17-2007, 02:55 PM

The more I think about it, the more I think he has one of two hands:

* A busted heart draw (which explains the flop call, the defensive turn bet, and the all-out bluff on the river, which many players in that level tourney would try)
* A queen, probably QT-QK

Less likely is T9 of spades.

Would be curious to see results for this one...

xoom · #6 01-17-2007, 06:16 PM

I would love to see what he had myself. Ran my timer all the way down and finally folded. Figured I had enough chips and didn't need to risk it.

registrar · #7 01-17-2007, 06:58 PM

Wow man. I mean that's the most callingly cally call ever.

registrar · #8 01-17-2007, 07:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Figured I had enough chips and didn't need to risk it.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is incredibly flawed figuring. Tournament poker is about accumulating chips and all poker is about getting your money in with what rates to be the best hand and you have the best hand almost always here. At this stage of a tournament, I'd probably never fold the nut flush on this board but in this case he has absolutely no reason to put you on the nut flush so he's not value betting a sneaky boat here.

zoobird · #9 01-17-2007, 07:07 PM

Definitely call with the nut flush here. Tougher decision if you had a weaker flush.

And bet more (200) preflop. Standard is 3bb+1bb/limper, and there's rarely a reason to raise less than that...sometimes more is ok.