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View Poll Results: Line choices are ~EV equivalent or I'm not certain but I'd do:
I answered the first question so I'm skipping this version 9 60.00%
As played=> check turn, call river 4 26.67%
Bet/fold turn, check behind river 1 6.67%
Bet/fold turn, bet river 0 0%
Other 1 6.67%
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 01-17-2007, 03:34 PM
B K B K is offline
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Default Bellagio 1k bubble problems

I generally value aggression near the bubble, especially with respect to looking for resteal opportunities, but in this event it never felt right. I therefore was blinded down through the 15BB range and found myself with less than 10BB (15k with the blinds 800/1600-300), never having pushed on a resteal. 1k Bellagio daily event, 96 players, pays 9 places.

11 players remain, 6 at my table. I am one of two short stacks at the table, the other being on my immediate left. He hasn't played a hand through this entire 40 minute level. I have like 19k and he has 15k at the start of this round and everybody else has over 50k. Blinds are 800/1600-300. I push twice in a row and steal the blinds. I'm now up to 27kish. I fold once, then raise to 4k UTG with KJ. The tight short stack on my left thinks for a long time and pushed for 14k total. I folded, leaving myself with 23k. I folded both blinds preflop and then folded the next 3 hands until I'm UTG with AQ. This is the last hand of the level. I start the hand with 20k and raise preflop to 4k. One of the big stack calls me from the CO. The CO has been pretty active - earlier he raised preflop from UTG and stacked a guy when he flopped a straight with 86. He once just called a preflop raise and showed it down with JJ. Anyway, he calls and the blinds folded. The flop came 832r. I have 16k left. The villain has about 70k. The pot is 12.2k. I realize that pushing preflop may have been a better option, but given that I did not, and assuming the big stack will bet when checked to,
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  #2  
Old 01-17-2007, 03:45 PM
grafyx grafyx is offline
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Default Re: Bellagio 1k bubble problems

Why did you lay down KJ after raising to 4k? It looks like you are getting about 2.2-1 to make the call. Did you read him for a big pair?
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  #3  
Old 01-17-2007, 03:53 PM
AragornX151 AragornX151 is offline
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Default Re: Bellagio 1k bubble problems

I definitely would have pushed preflop, but this is a particularly bad flop for you against a player like your opponent, who could have anything. On the bubble, I'd just check and fold, and wait for another spot to push. Bubble aggression is great but not blind bubble aggression. Who knows, maybe he thinks you're trapping and doesn't bet, and you hit a Q or an A on the turn...and then you push.
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  #4  
Old 01-17-2007, 03:54 PM
B K B K is offline
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Default Re: Bellagio 1k bubble problems

Given that I hadn't seen him play a hand in almost 40 minutes I gave him a rather narrow range of hands, all of which I was in bad shape against except maybe TT, 99 and AQ. It may have been close to a call if I had a chips but the fact the I would be crippled if I lost made it a clear fold.
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  #5  
Old 01-17-2007, 07:11 PM
Cornell Fiji Cornell Fiji is offline
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Default Re: Bellagio 1k bubble problems

Given your previous aggression I think I would have open folded or pushed (leaning strongly toward folding) the KJo UTG.

Obviously that is not your question though. If the villain had less than 22k then I am definitely pushing this flop... but that does not help much because he has 70k...

On a very aggro table I might have gone for a limp-raise all in with the AQo but again, that does not help you here...

Tough hand... I could go either way but since:
1) Having 28k does not ensure a big jump up in the money I think that pushing might be +cEV but -$EV.
and
2) He has 70k and can afford a loose call getting almost 2:1 therefore you are not going to get many (any?) hands that beat you to fold.

I think I check/fold.

This sucks because he very well could have just been calling pf to use his position to bully you. However, since you have shown a willingness to put your chips in play on the bubble he might not assume he could bully you and therefore he might have a hand good enough to call you.

I think I have talked myself into check/fold.
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